{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ee264209-ee26-45ff-b848-8efe3d27d9fc", "symbol": "BN", "name": "Danone S.A.", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 86.011, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 42.222, "architecture_energy": 25.392, "architecture_maturity": 55.532, "architecture_confidence": 64.194, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.75, "rotation_up": 36.47, "upward_expansion": 64.95, "deceleration": 85.37, "rotation_down": 24.22, "downward_expansion": 14.95 }, "activity_lines": [ 69.320001, 69.956365, 67.921277, 67.485251 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 68.080002, "trend_reference": 67.305189, "distance_from_trend": 0.011512, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 62.498791, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.089301, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -21.119374, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.014175, "excess_performance": -0.160072, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.011512, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.025259, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.089301, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.055504, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.211194, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.03204, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.014175, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.231234, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 102, "relative_activity": 0.211618, "balance": 0.231234, "dry_up": 2.177386, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.044495, "annualized_volatility": 0.240541, "from_high_reference": -0.117203, "from_low_reference": 0.113874 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 67.305189, "fair_value_reference": 62.498791, "structural_low": 61.119999, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.000173, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.029504, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.038277, "worst_return": -0.061294, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.077691, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.014612, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.097264, "worst_return": -0.058971, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.020189, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.109819, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.077987, "worst_return": -0.118656, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.03681, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.105241, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.025884, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.112651, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.048514, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Established", 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"activity_lines": [ 72.393334, 69.640728, 67.38379, 67.30906 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 70.220001, "volume": 1768, "typical_volume": 393.3, "trend": 67.715824, "fair_value": 62.265855, "relative_strength": -17.35252, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 37.835105, "energy": 68.754263, "activity_lines": [ 72.020001, 70.176365, 67.722765, 67.462266 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 67.5, "volume": 1950, "typical_volume": 490.45, "trend": 67.507925, "fair_value": 62.382292, "relative_strength": -19.961904, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 31.653095, "energy": 32.271638, "activity_lines": [ 70.406667, 70.066183, 67.790548, 67.448342 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 68.080002, "volume": 102, "typical_volume": 482.0, "trend": 67.305189, "fair_value": 62.498791, "relative_strength": -21.119374, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.222242, "energy": 25.391876, "activity_lines": [ 69.320001, 69.956365, 67.921277, 67.485251 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }