{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ee35026b-7b0c-4fe6-8c89-94af3b494419", "symbol": "XDEM", "name": "Xtrackers MSCI World Momentum UCITS ETF 1C", "exchange": "EBS", "country": "CH", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SSMI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 86.008, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 30.523, "architecture_energy": 26.295, "architecture_maturity": 66.84, "architecture_confidence": 81.965, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.47, "rotation_up": 19.41, "upward_expansion": 54.27, "deceleration": 94.0, "rotation_down": 33.38, "downward_expansion": 20.27 }, "activity_lines": [ 96.330668, 97.793455, 96.979667, 94.097871 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 97.230003, "trend_reference": 90.615, "distance_from_trend": 0.073001, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 70.584085, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.377506, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 2.000433, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.167227, "excess_performance": 0.084344, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.073001, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.070526, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.377506, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.03865, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.020004, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.109074, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.167227, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.418626, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 18778, "relative_activity": 1.238417, "balance": 0.418626, "dry_up": 1.059362, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.039359, "annualized_volatility": 0.208624, "from_high_reference": -0.062211, "from_low_reference": 0.280353 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 90.615, "fair_value_reference": 70.584085, "structural_low": 76.050003, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.033212, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.000502, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.078269, "worst_return": -0.041607, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.010875, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.039469, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.119427, "worst_return": -0.056353, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.059788, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.031188, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.126158, "worst_return": -0.045155, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.026004, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.08691, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.032682, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.021339, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.083534, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.015246, 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"activity_lines": [ 100.733333, 99.864545, 95.599142, 92.439204 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 94.720001, "volume": 10041, "typical_volume": 14202.25, "trend": 89.281333, "fair_value": 69.655612, "relative_strength": 0.957432, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.746199, "energy": 49.244236, "activity_lines": [ 98.628, 99.146727, 95.915952, 92.820645 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 97.0, "volume": 7954, "typical_volume": 13928.35, "trend": 89.757666, "fair_value": 69.964483, "relative_strength": 3.398718, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.580991, "energy": 33.807339, "activity_lines": [ 97.634, 98.829273, 96.408381, 93.318623 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 94.779999, "volume": 27479, "typical_volume": 14276.45, "trend": 90.174, "fair_value": 70.265808, "relative_strength": 0.855437, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 34.482652, "energy": 28.281666, "activity_lines": [ 96.344, 98.074, 96.61, 93.642645 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 97.230003, "volume": 18778, "typical_volume": 15162.9, "trend": 90.615, "fair_value": 70.584085, "relative_strength": 2.000433, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 30.523151, "energy": 26.2953, "activity_lines": [ 96.330668, 97.793455, 96.979667, 94.097871 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }