{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ee375488-3869-4fd2-9f29-5ab7f2e4d749", "symbol": "WIE", "name": "Wienerberger AG", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.024, "architecture_energy": 65.561, "architecture_maturity": 49.955, "architecture_confidence": 84.682, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 13.94, "rotation_up": 10.95, "upward_expansion": 14.1, "deceleration": 38.4, "rotation_down": 71.44, "downward_expansion": 89.76 }, "activity_lines": [ 21.526667, 22.139636, 22.762015, 23.193214 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 21.74, "trend_reference": 24.140302, "distance_from_trend": -0.099431, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 26.94433, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.193151, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -31.372096, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.235098, "excess_performance": -0.409345, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.099431, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.065079, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.193151, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.089613, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.313721, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.058737, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.235098, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.008379, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1255464, "relative_activity": 0.863371, "balance": 1.008379, "dry_up": 1.24271, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.067907, "annualized_volatility": 0.404135, "from_high_reference": -0.321058, "from_low_reference": 0.092462 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 24.140302, "fair_value_reference": 26.94433, "structural_low": 19.9, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 28, "median_return": 0.010983, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.010672, "regime_survival": 0.785714, "best_return": 0.237098, "worst_return": -0.209356, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.057945, "positive_rate": 0.7, "directional_follow_through": 0.3, "median_excess_return": -0.026648, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.22411, "worst_return": -0.273982, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.029306, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.010941, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.309871, "worst_return": -0.236351, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.430754, "energy": 41.980614, "activity_lines": [ 22.964, 23.219273, 23.35066, 23.88162 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 20.08, "volume": 3137700, "typical_volume": 1580442.3, "trend": 24.623372, "fair_value": 26.989146, "relative_strength": -36.30696, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -82.776197, "energy": 73.595546, "activity_lines": [ 21.936, 22.641091, 23.045924, 23.569484 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 21.42, "volume": 1486033, "typical_volume": 1536439.0, "trend": 24.368806, "fair_value": 26.954623, "relative_strength": -31.287381, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.675185, "energy": 68.481335, "activity_lines": [ 21.604, 22.347636, 22.886172, 23.362815 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 21.74, "volume": 1255464, "typical_volume": 1454141.95, "trend": 24.140302, "fair_value": 26.94433, "relative_strength": -31.372096, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.024416, "energy": 65.560915, "activity_lines": [ 21.526667, 22.139636, 22.762015, 23.193214 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }