{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ee3e0d59-340d-45e8-b6ec-3b9485bb9cfe", "symbol": "CVGI", "name": "Commercial Vehicle Group Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 85.426, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": -3.608, "architecture_energy": 10.444, "architecture_maturity": 49.446, "architecture_confidence": 66.716, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 63.65, "rotation_up": 17.81, "upward_expansion": 47.57, "deceleration": 84.21, "rotation_down": 32.76, "downward_expansion": 25.57 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.27, 4.454909, 4.587476, 4.26372 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 3.63, "trend_reference": 3.647167, "distance_from_trend": -0.004707, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 3.776212, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.038719, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 16.44662, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 1.226994, "excess_performance": 1.03954, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.004707, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.383686, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.038719, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.24186, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.164466, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.954407, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 1.226994, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.488242, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4120004, "relative_activity": 1.60249, "balance": 0.488242, "dry_up": 0.873487, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.217915, "annualized_volatility": 1.106552, "from_high_reference": -0.382653, "from_low_reference": 1.813953 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.647167, "fair_value_reference": 3.776212, "structural_low": 1.41, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.033899, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.066666, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.393103, "worst_return": -0.253086, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.01612, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.0281, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.456036, "worst_return": -0.314255, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.028409, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.095677, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.166915, "worst_return": -0.172625, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2023-09-15", "end": "2023-10-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.114249, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-10-27", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.725948, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.00565, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.045455, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.187817, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 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3.278167, "fair_value": 3.930571, "relative_strength": 64.232139, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 40.864984, "energy": 25.651477, "activity_lines": [ 4.700667, 4.822, 4.58319, 4.032194 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 4.53, "volume": 1374371, "typical_volume": 5184087.25, "trend": 3.378167, "fair_value": 3.892751, "relative_strength": 57.241562, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.336203, "energy": 20.037964, "activity_lines": [ 4.61, 4.752727, 4.622929, 4.112957 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.62, "volume": 1682637, "typical_volume": 5227068.55, "trend": 3.482167, "fair_value": 3.855058, "relative_strength": 60.537241, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 34.030136, "energy": 18.962063, "activity_lines": [ 4.607333, 4.710182, 4.65781, 4.193075 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.53, "volume": 1805934, "typical_volume": 2655881.45, "trend": 3.582833, "fair_value": 3.818648, "relative_strength": 54.056036, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 24.17277, "energy": 15.623522, "activity_lines": [ 4.589333, 4.660364, 4.669381, 4.260677 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.63, "volume": 4120004, "typical_volume": 2571001.5, "trend": 3.647167, "fair_value": 3.776212, "relative_strength": 16.44662, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -3.6077, "energy": 10.444009, "activity_lines": [ 4.27, 4.454909, 4.587476, 4.26372 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }