{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ee40827a-15a9-4197-9dfa-d2e41d0f6203", "symbol": "SAGARDEEP", "name": "Sagardeep Alloys Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 59.974, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 4.588, "architecture_energy": 4.003, "architecture_maturity": 26.815, "architecture_confidence": 50.32, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 57.41, "rotation_up": 30.46, "upward_expansion": 24.37, "deceleration": 55.66, "rotation_down": 34.74, "downward_expansion": 31.03 }, "activity_lines": [ 24.616667, 24.698, 24.590714, 24.393656 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 24.860001, "trend_reference": 24.398, "distance_from_trend": 0.018936, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 27.505513, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.096181, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -2.708127, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.010744, "excess_performance": 0.032965, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.018936, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.027335, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.096181, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.022732, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.027081, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.053464, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.010744, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 10.145767, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 28475, "relative_activity": 0.436411, "balance": 10.145767, "dry_up": 0.571334, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.077078, "annualized_volatility": 0.264352, "from_high_reference": -0.210292, "from_low_reference": 0.194618 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 24.398, "fair_value_reference": 27.505513, "structural_low": 20.809999, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": -0.046346, "positive_rate": 0.238095, "directional_follow_through": 0.238095, "median_excess_return": -0.042808, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.167647, "worst_return": -0.106809, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.106097, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.0692, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.123708, "worst_return": -0.21273, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.077559, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.109518, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.22268, "worst_return": -0.205592, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.010492, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.243495, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.054962, "worst_return": -0.138158, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-04-05", "end": "2024-04-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.020295, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-05-03", "end": "2024-07-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.296613, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-07-26", "end": "2024-08-02", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.007557, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-08-09", "end": "2024-08-16", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.024207, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-08-23", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.096108, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.243947, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.075564, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.014063, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.012554, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", 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"activity_lines": [ 25.026, 24.897636, 24.368762, 24.414495 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 24.469999, "volume": 17236, "typical_volume": 68819.9, "trend": 24.675, "fair_value": 27.457564, "relative_strength": -3.718336, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 17.825367, "energy": 12.030273, "activity_lines": [ 24.868, 24.860545, 24.406238, 24.398194 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 24.02, "volume": 18536, "typical_volume": 67911.7, "trend": 24.625333, "fair_value": 27.475, "relative_strength": -5.615799, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -1.062601, "energy": 3.532366, "activity_lines": [ 24.568666, 24.737454, 24.405619, 24.355936 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 25.16, "volume": 70522, "typical_volume": 67813.9, "trend": 24.579333, "fair_value": 27.499744, "relative_strength": 1.375303, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 9.576803, "energy": 5.89968, "activity_lines": [ 24.691333, 24.821454, 24.513238, 24.39043 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 24.24, "volume": 31581, "typical_volume": 66852.45, "trend": 24.470667, "fair_value": 27.49968, "relative_strength": -4.504665, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -1.103116, "energy": 4.201887, "activity_lines": [ 24.527333, 24.708545, 24.525714, 24.368538 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 24.860001, "volume": 28475, "typical_volume": 65248.2, "trend": 24.398, "fair_value": 27.505513, "relative_strength": -2.708127, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 4.587643, "energy": 4.002941, "activity_lines": [ 24.616667, 24.698, 24.590714, 24.393656 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }