{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ee434aa9-2bbb-4e05-94ed-bcf0ac30d92c", "symbol": "QQQS", "name": "WisdomTree NASDAQ 100 3x Daily Short", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.521, "architecture_energy": 39.538, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 84.931, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.71, "rotation_up": 27.93, "upward_expansion": 23.37, "deceleration": 46.96, "rotation_down": 38.07, "downward_expansion": 64.37 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.56736, 1.5408, 1.59124, 1.805171 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 1.405, "trend_reference": 2.060153, "distance_from_trend": -0.318012, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.760821, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.792185, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -49.684661, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.459511, "excess_performance": -0.630403, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.318012, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.145465, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.792185, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.011037, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.496847, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.032913, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.459511, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.76936, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4089290, "relative_activity": 1.056673, "balance": 0.76936, "dry_up": 1.293276, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.122595, "annualized_volatility": 0.63199, "from_high_reference": -0.588941, "from_low_reference": 0.02465 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.060153, "fair_value_reference": 6.760821, "structural_low": 1.3712, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 47, "median_return": -0.056317, "positive_rate": 0.297872, "directional_follow_through": 0.702128, "median_excess_return": -0.08661, "regime_survival": 0.914894, "best_return": 0.324388, "worst_return": -0.279101, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.176171, "positive_rate": 0.1875, "directional_follow_through": 0.8125, "median_excess_return": -0.202864, "regime_survival": 0.8125, "best_return": 0.131787, "worst_return": -0.326282, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.363304, "positive_rate": 0.111111, "directional_follow_through": 0.888889, "median_excess_return": -0.498723, "regime_survival": 0.888889, "best_return": 0.636297, "worst_return": -0.47003, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"typical_volume": 3790918.0, "trend": 2.176623, "fair_value": 7.114831, "relative_strength": -50.92547, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.74232, "energy": 73.042648, "activity_lines": [ 1.459453, 1.468815, 1.723001, 1.943454 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.6276, "volume": 3573053, "typical_volume": 3750130.35, "trend": 2.14731, "fair_value": 7.029278, "relative_strength": -42.912869, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.446733, "energy": 56.592743, "activity_lines": [ 1.516, 1.494244, 1.685781, 1.908034 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.67, "volume": 3450972, "typical_volume": 3647205.6, "trend": 2.121893, "fair_value": 6.947457, "relative_strength": -40.331057, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.17514, "energy": 47.188744, "activity_lines": [ 1.576667, 1.526622, 1.657106, 1.877239 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.6938, "volume": 8906432, "typical_volume": 3860193.2, "trend": 2.09397, "fair_value": 6.860238, "relative_strength": -38.680898, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.274481, "energy": 32.328289, "activity_lines": [ 1.6256, 1.561611, 1.635233, 1.84962 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.405, "volume": 4089290, "typical_volume": 3869966.7, "trend": 2.060153, "fair_value": 6.760821, "relative_strength": -49.684661, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.52116, "energy": 39.538476, "activity_lines": [ 1.56736, 1.5408, 1.59124, 1.805171 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }