{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ee4eb5fd-b068-43f6-885d-022d34ead761", "symbol": "TIPZ", "name": "PIMCO ETF TRUST BROAD US TIPS INDEX FD ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 68.12, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.488, "architecture_energy": 77.443, "architecture_maturity": 11.167, "architecture_confidence": 88.469, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.31, "rotation_up": 10.48, "upward_expansion": 18.52, "deceleration": 37.36, "rotation_down": 75.02, "downward_expansion": 94.19 }, "activity_lines": [ 51.038909, 51.231061, 51.504372, 51.668679 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 51.085, "trend_reference": 51.841206, "distance_from_trend": -0.014587, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 49.486532, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.032301, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.251396, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.018019, "excess_performance": -0.143644, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.014587, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.002432, "read": "Falling" 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50.831287, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": 0.004948, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": 0.004245, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.040725, "worst_return": -0.051638, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.002711, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.017499, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.028467, "worst_return": -0.062886, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.003986, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.01491, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.040562, "worst_return": -0.052415, "sufficient": false }, { 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"2026-07-17", "close": 51.292578, "volume": 50239, "typical_volume": 220586.8, "trend": 51.916626, "fair_value": 49.402387, "relative_strength": -9.300322, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.638503, "energy": 67.69866, "activity_lines": [ 51.398817, 51.552007, 51.742199, 51.847186 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 50.920172, "volume": 27385, "typical_volume": 216847.1, "trend": 51.890416, "fair_value": 49.428577, "relative_strength": -9.162377, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.084026, "energy": 81.023649, "activity_lines": [ 51.201777, 51.423086, 51.651761, 51.782898 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 50.899935, "volume": 33312, "typical_volume": 214245.7, "trend": 51.864924, "fair_value": 49.456007, "relative_strength": -9.844282, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.358883, "energy": 84.639892, "activity_lines": [ 51.055907, 51.304013, 51.566491, 51.718996 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 51.085, "volume": 39627, "typical_volume": 212948.5, "trend": 51.841206, "fair_value": 49.486532, "relative_strength": -12.251396, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.487876, "energy": 77.443116, "activity_lines": [ 51.038909, 51.231061, 51.504372, 51.668679 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }