{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ee648e98-b44c-4d6f-b956-ae6c612efe3d", "symbol": "WUNI34", "name": "The Western Union Company", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -60.973, "architecture_energy": 42.356, "architecture_maturity": 54.522, "architecture_confidence": 87.961, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 26.42, "rotation_up": 23.38, "upward_expansion": 8.1, "deceleration": 55.51, "rotation_down": 48.38, "downward_expansion": 74.43 }, "activity_lines": [ 37.642, 38.64789, 39.761237, 41.504986 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 36.43, "trend_reference": 43.918194, "distance_from_trend": -0.170503, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 51.708164, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.295469, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -21.983734, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.306057, "excess_performance": -0.249009, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.170503, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.068446, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.295469, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.118038, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.219837, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.005861, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.306057, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.628719, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3660, "relative_activity": 2.035142, "balance": 0.628719, "dry_up": 1.972865, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.10034, "annualized_volatility": 0.52842, "from_high_reference": -0.315549, "from_low_reference": 0.135953 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 43.918194, "fair_value_reference": 51.708164, "structural_low": 32.07, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 37, "median_return": -0.028708, "positive_rate": 0.351351, "directional_follow_through": 0.648649, "median_excess_return": -0.031053, "regime_survival": 0.837838, "best_return": 0.184527, "worst_return": -0.164401, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.025822, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.074414, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 0.094938, "worst_return": -0.225054, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.081766, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.136504, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.15016, "worst_return": -0.222448, "sufficient": true 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"close": 40.029999, "volume": 867, "typical_volume": 1143.95, "trend": 45.5763, "fair_value": 51.975808, "relative_strength": -19.080534, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.931099, "energy": 44.027493, "activity_lines": [ 39.501701, 39.411849, 41.271092, 43.134014 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 45.599998, "volume": 1454, "typical_volume": 1202.9, "trend": 45.346724, "fair_value": 51.952053, "relative_strength": -5.240705, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -15.314734, "energy": 18.066703, "activity_lines": [ 41.659999, 40.448991, 41.49024, 43.135543 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 40.990002, "volume": 5060, "typical_volume": 1439.0, "trend": 45.001195, "fair_value": 51.898746, "relative_strength": -14.38357, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -28.28325, "energy": 26.026711, "activity_lines": [ 41.851333, 40.603374, 41.283179, 42.854464 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 32.07, "volume": 4018, "typical_volume": 1630.1, "trend": 44.415723, "fair_value": 51.792817, "relative_strength": -33.880022, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.633137, "energy": 43.77807, "activity_lines": [ 38.799333, 39.141547, 40.267991, 42.020193 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 36.43, "volume": 3660, "typical_volume": 1798.4, "trend": 43.918194, "fair_value": 51.708164, "relative_strength": -21.983734, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.973144, "energy": 42.355651, "activity_lines": [ 37.642, 38.64789, 39.761237, 41.504986 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }