{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ee6e2e00-0943-4305-8b61-804945cd2ed0", "symbol": "5014", "name": "Chain Chon Industrial Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 0.957, "architecture_energy": 5.839, "architecture_maturity": 17.563, "architecture_confidence": 61.269, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 72.26, "rotation_up": 31.2, "upward_expansion": 34.29, "deceleration": 57.92, "rotation_down": 31.71, "downward_expansion": 20.62 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.448326, 10.468423, 10.352284, 10.276011 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 10.1, "trend_reference": 10.305501, "distance_from_trend": -0.019941, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 12.042541, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.161307, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -29.111615, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.046554, "excess_performance": -0.487926, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.019941, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.021626, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.161307, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.047014, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.291116, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.077931, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.046554, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.224307, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5870521, "relative_activity": 3.16561, "balance": 1.224307, "dry_up": 1.459937, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.058029, "annualized_volatility": 0.238742, "from_high_reference": -0.139573, "from_low_reference": 0.136762 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.305501, "fair_value_reference": 12.042541, "structural_low": 8.884887, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.037886, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.048281, "regime_survival": 0.533333, "best_return": 0.123223, "worst_return": -0.176755, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.006346, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.096517, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.161765, "worst_return": -0.270042, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.142727, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.197333, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.195036, "worst_return": -0.425281, 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"active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.147464, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.068182, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.00495, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.013216, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.11017, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-20", 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10.528082, 10.266812, 10.249671 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.45, "volume": 2174270, "typical_volume": 1605149.35, "trend": 10.294443, "fair_value": 12.071726, "relative_strength": -23.769819, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 11.862451, "energy": 12.783151, "activity_lines": [ 10.513623, 10.517671, 10.298806, 10.261452 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.75, "volume": 1362542, "typical_volume": 1600265.2, "trend": 10.329892, "fair_value": 12.058796, "relative_strength": -22.737443, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 30.318406, "energy": 23.017108, "activity_lines": [ 10.597717, 10.55313, 10.357325, 10.290842 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 10.1, "volume": 5870521, "typical_volume": 1854467.5, "trend": 10.305501, "fair_value": 12.042541, "relative_strength": -29.111615, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 0.95673, "energy": 5.839099, "activity_lines": [ 10.448326, 10.468423, 10.352284, 10.276011 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }