{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ee713aa4-5ce1-4083-8603-d9b74656e45a", "symbol": "TCMC", "name": "TCM Corporation Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -57.404, "architecture_energy": 56.187, "architecture_maturity": 9.575, "architecture_confidence": 91.36, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.24, "rotation_up": 13.8, "upward_expansion": 14.24, "deceleration": 35.2, "rotation_down": 66.75, "downward_expansion": 87.57 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.292667, 0.302727, 0.310905, 0.313699 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.29, "trend_reference": 0.320333, "distance_from_trend": -0.094693, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.757372, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.617097, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -30.341814, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.194444, "excess_performance": -0.386769, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.094693, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.055064, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.617097, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.011849, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.303418, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.040578, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.194444, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.529494, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3205700, "relative_activity": 0.973925, "balance": 0.529494, "dry_up": 1.038265, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.111406, "annualized_volatility": 0.452094, "from_high_reference": -0.516667, "from_low_reference": 0.115385 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.320333, "fair_value_reference": 0.757372, "structural_low": 0.26, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 44, "median_return": -0.026547, "positive_rate": 0.318182, "directional_follow_through": 0.613636, "median_excess_return": -0.024965, "regime_survival": 0.863636, "best_return": 0.195946, "worst_return": -0.230769, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.083333, "positive_rate": 0.266667, "directional_follow_through": 0.733333, "median_excess_return": -0.086425, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.333333, "worst_return": -0.375, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.101236, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.114954, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.283951, "worst_return": -0.476744, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-01-26", "end": "2024-03-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.119205, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-03-08", "end": "2024-10-04", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.333333, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.223404, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.416667, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.190476, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": 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"close": 0.31, "volume": 5922400, "typical_volume": 3941475.0, "trend": 0.329667, "fair_value": 0.796667, "relative_strength": -29.677899, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -35.0254, "energy": 15.290909, "activity_lines": [ 0.320667, 0.318909, 0.320286, 0.322409 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.3, "volume": 5048900, "typical_volume": 3857915.0, "trend": 0.327667, "fair_value": 0.786795, "relative_strength": -31.877147, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.937432, "energy": 21.111012, "activity_lines": [ 0.314667, 0.315091, 0.318714, 0.320495 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.29, "volume": 4327100, "typical_volume": 3840595.0, "trend": 0.325, "fair_value": 0.776667, "relative_strength": -33.532328, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.98628, "energy": 35.280514, "activity_lines": [ 0.305333, 0.31, 0.316143, 0.318065 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.29, "volume": 1088200, "typical_volume": 3749360.0, "trend": 0.322667, "fair_value": 0.766603, "relative_strength": -31.715519, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.745099, "energy": 53.341044, "activity_lines": [ 0.298, 0.306182, 0.313524, 0.315806 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.29, "volume": 3205700, "typical_volume": 3291525.0, "trend": 0.320333, "fair_value": 0.757372, "relative_strength": -30.341814, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.404066, "energy": 56.186611, "activity_lines": [ 0.292667, 0.302727, 0.310905, 0.313699 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }