{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ee764f48-e328-483e-8281-6b6d20c27b90", "symbol": "S20", "name": "The Straits Trading Company Limited", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 51.117, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -50.28, "architecture_energy": 33.981, "architecture_maturity": 19.02, "architecture_confidence": 95.985, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.77, "rotation_up": 16.03, "upward_expansion": 5.68, "deceleration": 43.93, "rotation_down": 51.34, "downward_expansion": 79.01 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.605333, 1.608727, 1.619713, 1.621602 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 1.61, "trend_reference": 1.630803, "distance_from_trend": -0.012756, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1.448915, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.111177, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -15.014183, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.084064, "excess_performance": -0.238899, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.012756, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.014955, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.111177, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.038779, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.150142, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.138353, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.084064, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.428792, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 395500, "relative_activity": 0.841991, "balance": 0.428792, "dry_up": 0.83784, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.023889, "annualized_volatility": 0.140836, "from_high_reference": -0.112989, "from_low_reference": 0.131088 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.630803, "fair_value_reference": 1.448915, "structural_low": 1.499832, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.003425, "positive_rate": 0.4375, "directional_follow_through": 0.4375, "median_excess_return": -0.013438, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.111111, "worst_return": -0.091549, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.06993, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.034748, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.0375, "worst_return": -0.129144, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.021126, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.078477, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.145527, "worst_return": -0.211299, "sufficient": 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{ "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.121608, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.035461, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.061643, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.071429, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.018405, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": 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1.626236, 1.628365 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 1.6, "volume": 690800, "typical_volume": 610560.0, "trend": 1.622512, "fair_value": 1.453334, "relative_strength": -13.68111, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -23.728669, "energy": 15.159449, "activity_lines": [ 1.612667, 1.620727, 1.624004, 1.627067 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.6, "volume": 365900, "typical_volume": 564340.0, "trend": 1.625214, "fair_value": 1.45217, "relative_strength": -13.980111, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -26.978554, "energy": 29.529922, "activity_lines": [ 1.607333, 1.615273, 1.622296, 1.625614 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.61, "volume": 166400, "typical_volume": 490695.0, "trend": 1.627613, "fair_value": 1.451015, "relative_strength": -14.166017, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.103878, "energy": 39.779248, "activity_lines": [ 1.605333, 1.613091, 1.621882, 1.624633 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.6, "volume": 646400, "typical_volume": 482275.0, "trend": 1.629359, "fair_value": 1.449905, "relative_strength": -14.854564, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.717347, "energy": 40.830273, "activity_lines": [ 1.603333, 1.609818, 1.620401, 1.622851 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.61, "volume": 395500, "typical_volume": 469720.0, "trend": 1.630803, "fair_value": 1.448915, "relative_strength": -15.014183, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.279903, "energy": 33.980682, "activity_lines": [ 1.605333, 1.608727, 1.619713, 1.621602 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }