{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ee819a7a-b203-400c-ae55-087c6d321d04", "symbol": "MM8", "name": "Medallion Metals Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 48.689, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 28.165, "architecture_energy": 19.93, "architecture_maturity": 50.882, "architecture_confidence": 59.539, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.9, "rotation_up": 42.05, "upward_expansion": 42.5, "deceleration": 34.0, "rotation_down": 32.64, "downward_expansion": 21.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.432667, 0.426727, 0.425024, 0.424129 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 0.465, "trend_reference": 0.428167, "distance_from_trend": 0.086026, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.21709, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.141971, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 2.743197, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.033333, "excess_performance": -0.030372, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.086026, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.012613, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.141971, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.199971, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.027432, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.104986, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.033333, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.993032, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4685191, "relative_activity": 1.498272, "balance": 0.993032, "dry_up": 1.090955, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.098015, "annualized_volatility": 0.553654, "from_high_reference": -0.225, "from_low_reference": 0.86 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.428167, "fair_value_reference": 0.21709, "structural_low": 0.33, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.028805, "positive_rate": 0.3, "directional_follow_through": 0.3, "median_excess_return": -0.038234, "regime_survival": 0.7, "best_return": 0.581818, "worst_return": -0.126984, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.130435, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.152124, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.396825, "worst_return": -0.174603, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 1.346902, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 1.352255, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 2.709677, "worst_return": -0.015873, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"activity_lines": [ 0.421667, 0.422091, 0.421548, 0.423527 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.4, "volume": 2849068, "typical_volume": 3560931.15, "trend": 0.426667, "fair_value": 0.212186, "relative_strength": -5.184527, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.805519, "energy": 27.008676, "activity_lines": [ 0.413667, 0.417727, 0.419714, 0.421731 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.425, "volume": 2423363, "typical_volume": 3124561.1, "trend": 0.426167, "fair_value": 0.2145, "relative_strength": -2.387635, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.798676, "energy": 15.935613, "activity_lines": [ 0.417, 0.418545, 0.420381, 0.421624 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.465, "volume": 4685191, "typical_volume": 3127063.85, "trend": 0.428167, "fair_value": 0.21709, "relative_strength": 2.743197, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 28.164558, "energy": 19.929628, "activity_lines": [ 0.432667, 0.426727, 0.425024, 0.424129 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }