{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ee825f93-e7a5-46e1-a866-a7c7a5bdfaee", "symbol": "8067", "name": "Gish International Co., Ltd", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -50.591, "architecture_energy": 23.401, "architecture_maturity": 18.384, "architecture_confidence": 93.916, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 45.69, "rotation_up": 19.08, "upward_expansion": 1.21, "deceleration": 50.23, "rotation_down": 44.0, "downward_expansion": 72.21 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.966667, 13.052727, 13.126667, 13.365269 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 12.5, "trend_reference": 13.721667, "distance_from_trend": -0.089032, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 15.366026, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.186517, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -36.313632, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.134948, "excess_performance": -0.57632, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.089032, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.036738, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.186517, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.00449, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.363136, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.030173, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.134948, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.312227, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 103148, "relative_activity": 1.754749, "balance": 0.312227, "dry_up": 1.408564, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.143692, "annualized_volatility": 0.322486, "from_high_reference": -0.347258, "from_low_reference": 0.059322 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.721667, "fair_value_reference": 15.366026, "structural_low": 11.9, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": -0.037904, "positive_rate": 0.318182, "directional_follow_through": 0.318182, "median_excess_return": -0.028364, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.341912, "worst_return": -0.075908, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.071429, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.080773, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.391941, "worst_return": -0.145714, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.110476, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.144519, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.216117, "worst_return": -0.214286, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.172916, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.213547, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.380952, "worst_return": -0.195238, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-07-12", "end": "2024-08-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.167089, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2024-10-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.095652, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.005435, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.068681, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.048257, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.044944, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.284024, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.071651, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.058394, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.069686, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.047782, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.079585, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.003876, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-08-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.056604, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-11", "close": 12.8, "volume": 79000, "typical_volume": 57950.0, "trend": 15.024238, "fair_value": 16.123602, "relative_strength": -23.070589, "stage": 4, "regime": 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"close": 13.25, "volume": 19136, "typical_volume": 47415.95, "trend": 13.981667, "fair_value": 15.383013, "relative_strength": -30.991051, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -34.306918, "energy": 15.040922, "activity_lines": [ 13.22, 13.219091, 13.318571, 13.605054 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 12.65, "volume": 134693, "typical_volume": 53126.25, "trend": 13.905, "fair_value": 15.370513, "relative_strength": -34.78699, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.352302, "energy": 24.927887, "activity_lines": [ 13.03, 13.117273, 13.228571, 13.51914 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.35, "volume": 23000, "typical_volume": 52019.75, "trend": 13.863333, "fair_value": 15.369551, "relative_strength": -29.525898, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.212365, "energy": 21.322234, "activity_lines": [ 13.083333, 13.142727, 13.214286, 13.483333 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.35, "volume": 70353, "typical_volume": 53774.9, "trend": 13.816667, "fair_value": 15.365705, "relative_strength": -30.473471, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.284791, "energy": 17.827492, "activity_lines": [ 13.163333, 13.173636, 13.208571, 13.450215 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 12.5, "volume": 103148, "typical_volume": 58782.2, "trend": 13.721667, "fair_value": 15.366026, "relative_strength": -36.313632, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.590956, "energy": 23.400606, "activity_lines": [ 12.966667, 13.052727, 13.126667, 13.365269 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }