{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ee867611-4bc8-47d6-b5e3-2ddf981adfc0", "symbol": "SKMO", "name": "Sk\u00e5ne-m\u00f6llan AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 56.834, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 46.522, "architecture_energy": 31.57, "architecture_maturity": 35.056, "architecture_confidence": 74.327, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 43.56, "rotation_up": 47.83, "upward_expansion": 76.64, "deceleration": 53.13, "rotation_down": 22.9, "downward_expansion": 12.64 }, "activity_lines": [ 53.533333, 52.945455, 52.760502, 52.509297 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 54.5, "trend_reference": 52.494808, "distance_from_trend": 0.038198, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 56.637303, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.037737, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -12.890328, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.017035, "excess_performance": -0.04446, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.038198, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.028932, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.037737, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.07518, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.128903, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.068649, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.017035, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.177051, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2394, "relative_activity": 1.407325, "balance": 1.177051, "dry_up": 0.782582, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.076641, "annualized_volatility": 0.323819, "from_high_reference": -0.174972, "from_low_reference": 0.274189 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 52.494808, "fair_value_reference": 56.637303, "structural_low": 42.772295, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": -0.009709, "positive_rate": 0.352941, "directional_follow_through": 0.352941, "median_excess_return": -0.035262, "regime_survival": 0.705882, "best_return": 0.188785, "worst_return": -0.195122, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.031776, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.608333, "worst_return": -0.268293, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.025954, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.014008, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 2.787779, "worst_return": -0.264802, "sufficient": false 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"regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -32.141382, "energy": 12.432743, "activity_lines": [ 52.266667, 52.272727, 52.43416, 52.367243 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 51.0, "volume": 789, "typical_volume": 1838.4, "trend": 52.700349, "fair_value": 57.216974, "relative_strength": -16.302554, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.736082, "energy": 17.128865, "activity_lines": [ 51.8, 52.036364, 52.330433, 52.241503 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 53.5, "volume": 1082, "typical_volume": 1803.35, "trend": 52.613004, "fair_value": 57.012595, "relative_strength": -13.009992, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -15.63955, "energy": 7.53345, "activity_lines": [ 52.3, 52.281818, 52.446035, 52.293093 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 54.0, "volume": 1060, "typical_volume": 1717.7, "trend": 52.53583, "fair_value": 56.813807, "relative_strength": -12.65094, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 8.702229, "energy": 8.894706, "activity_lines": [ 52.833333, 52.572727, 52.58137, 52.382577 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 54.5, "volume": 2394, "typical_volume": 1701.1, "trend": 52.494808, "fair_value": 56.637303, "relative_strength": -12.890328, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.52213, "energy": 31.569654, "activity_lines": [ 53.533333, 52.945455, 52.760502, 52.509297 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }