{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ee875ecd-a5c0-49b7-b3f8-27282b82ffce", "symbol": "ABC", "name": "Cencora, Inc.", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 83.355, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 41.27, "architecture_energy": 64.728, "architecture_maturity": 6.601, "architecture_confidence": 68.902, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 16.63, "rotation_up": 75.71, "upward_expansion": 57.84, "deceleration": 16.2, "rotation_down": 14.06, "downward_expansion": 28.18 }, "activity_lines": [ 273.786668, 266.447275, 256.7819, 261.638933 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 279.899994, "trend_reference": 271.086248, "distance_from_trend": 0.032513, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 234.130086, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.195489, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -17.474551, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.069742, "excess_performance": -0.243988, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.032513, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.047654, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.195489, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.203781, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.174746, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.13141, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.069742, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 6.6, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 80, "relative_activity": 6.349206, "balance": 6.6, "dry_up": 1.884921, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.040398, "annualized_volatility": 0.300965, "from_high_reference": -0.148859, "from_low_reference": 0.309662 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 271.086248, "fair_value_reference": 234.130086, "structural_low": 213.719238, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-08-09", "end": "2024-09-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.071659, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.078456, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.074245, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.041483, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "New", 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"down", "direction": -20.9898, "energy": 25.922713, "activity_lines": [ 256.05334, 247.727074, 251.045304, 261.226831 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 273.299988, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 14.0, "trend": 272.384584, "fair_value": 232.036425, "relative_strength": -16.839863, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 9.787263, "energy": 27.796147, "activity_lines": [ 263.326667, 253.578183, 252.164938, 261.244013 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 271.600006, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 10.85, "trend": 271.869609, "fair_value": 232.722543, "relative_strength": -18.164413, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 7.959861, "energy": 31.905887, "activity_lines": [ 267.946668, 258.240002, 253.309814, 261.193395 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 270.200012, "volume": 15, "typical_volume": 11.6, "trend": 271.324556, "fair_value": 233.402927, "relative_strength": -18.190598, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "down", "direction": 6.153936, "energy": 30.882155, "activity_lines": [ 269.780005, 261.776367, 254.493804, 261.085679 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 279.899994, "volume": 80, "typical_volume": 12.6, "trend": 271.086248, "fair_value": 234.130086, "relative_strength": -17.474551, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 41.269737, "energy": 64.727533, "activity_lines": [ 273.786668, 266.447275, 256.7819, 261.638933 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }