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Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 82.229, "architecture_energy": 65.489, "architecture_maturity": 33.374, "architecture_confidence": 79.907, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.74, "rotation_up": 64.54, "upward_expansion": 84.25, "deceleration": 54.64, "rotation_down": 20.32, "downward_expansion": 10.92 }, "activity_lines": [ 125.202667, 123.987916, 121.498304, 119.190017 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 128.31, "trend_reference": 116.977753, "distance_from_trend": 0.096875, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 104.555826, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.227191, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -0.578811, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.095809, "excess_performance": -0.029816, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.096875, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.028927, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.227191, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.075338, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.005788, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.056182, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.095809, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.577998, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 587141, "relative_activity": 1.413668, "balance": 2.577998, "dry_up": 1.187999, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.026621, "annualized_volatility": 0.148501, "from_high_reference": -0.010259, "from_low_reference": 0.235413 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 116.977753, "fair_value_reference": 104.555826, "structural_low": 103.86, 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"activity_lines": [ 123.250528, 121.88912, 119.15324, 117.483805 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 121.64, "volume": 319794, "typical_volume": 413860.5, "trend": 116.231824, "fair_value": 104.095322, "relative_strength": -1.479105, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.2975, "energy": 69.770145, "activity_lines": [ 122.896667, 122.076709, 119.66563, 117.846553 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 125.35, "volume": 636036, "typical_volume": 415428.2, "trend": 116.604472, "fair_value": 104.316303, "relative_strength": 0.493214, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 74.187226, "energy": 61.891432, "activity_lines": [ 123.677333, 122.830464, 120.482919, 118.434822 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 128.31, "volume": 587141, "typical_volume": 415331.5, "trend": 116.977753, "fair_value": 104.555826, "relative_strength": -0.578811, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 82.228505, "energy": 65.488554, "activity_lines": [ 125.202667, 123.987916, 121.498304, 119.190017 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }