{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ee9e823a-29ad-4b12-ac14-4b74a43800c5", "symbol": "KZIA", "name": "Kazia Therapeutics Ltd ADR", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 48.434, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 41.593, "architecture_energy": 21.709, "architecture_maturity": 55.338, "architecture_confidence": 92.992, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 42.7, "rotation_up": 28.67, "upward_expansion": 54.41, "deceleration": 89.79, "rotation_down": 25.61, "downward_expansion": 18.07 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.128333, 13.263818, 13.064762, 12.041914 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 13.885, "trend_reference": 10.517, "distance_from_trend": 0.320243, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 15.151615, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.083596, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 30.200352, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 1.3981, "excess_performance": 1.210647, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.320243, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.162164, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.083596, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.142432, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.302004, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.205893, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 1.3981, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.013826, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1128454, "relative_activity": 1.102933, "balance": 1.013826, "dry_up": 0.999319, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.156254, "annualized_volatility": 0.880534, "from_high_reference": -0.202011, "from_low_reference": 1.856996 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.517, "fair_value_reference": 15.151615, "structural_low": 4.86, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.06963, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.09557, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.663477, "worst_return": -0.172414, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.198347, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.264493, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.083009, "worst_return": -0.265269, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.415776, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.500586, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.20428, "worst_return": -0.627273, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.201413, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.055914, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.017726, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.95201, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.274209, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.002, 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"stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.458596, "energy": 43.70239, "activity_lines": [ 13.617333, 13.41, 12.287595, 11.008914 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 13.56, "volume": 1096203, "typical_volume": 976911.4, "trend": 9.788833, "fair_value": 16.057961, "relative_strength": 28.407587, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.841998, "energy": 40.39877, "activity_lines": [ 13.697333, 13.438545, 12.538476, 11.258946 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 13.34, "volume": 729502, "typical_volume": 953886.7, "trend": 9.871167, "fair_value": 15.867865, "relative_strength": 31.627078, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 53.914371, "energy": 36.421314, "activity_lines": [ 13.532667, 13.424, 12.733048, 11.488054 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 12.26, "volume": 1066178, "typical_volume": 956653.2, "trend": 10.0275, "fair_value": 15.638763, "relative_strength": 22.849506, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.419248, "energy": 23.312588, "activity_lines": [ 13.070667, 13.233091, 12.801476, 11.642172 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.62, "volume": 1165636, "typical_volume": 991909.2, "trend": 10.2815, "fair_value": 15.370301, "relative_strength": 25.18467, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 34.133046, "energy": 18.702133, "activity_lines": [ 12.835333, 13.124, 12.885095, 11.80943 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.885, "volume": 1128454, "typical_volume": 1023139.6, "trend": 10.517, "fair_value": 15.151615, "relative_strength": 30.200352, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.592917, "energy": 21.709393, "activity_lines": [ 13.128333, 13.263818, 13.064762, 12.041914 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }