{ "ticker": { "uuid": "eea36a98-5e9b-47a4-9229-d0d0f681c6ef", "symbol": "SNPS", "name": "Synopsys, Inc.", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -66.428, "architecture_energy": 85.619, "architecture_maturity": 16.842, "architecture_confidence": 81.866, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.12, "rotation_up": 8.02, "upward_expansion": 20.91, "deceleration": 37.0, "rotation_down": 77.93, "downward_expansion": 94.25 }, "activity_lines": [ 6738.416016, 7187.645845, 7661.975635, 7706.7259 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 6945.0, "trend_reference": 7808.021012, "distance_from_trend": -0.11053, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 9183.800124, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.243777, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -17.834716, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.055873, "excess_performance": -0.001206, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.11053, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.023272, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.243777, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.209065, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.178347, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.074034, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.055873, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.960603, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 285, "relative_activity": 0.353905, "balance": 0.960603, "dry_up": 1.851173, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.069588, "annualized_volatility": 0.471348, "from_high_reference": -0.393979, "from_low_reference": 0.073313 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7808.021012, "fair_value_reference": 9183.800124, "structural_low": 6470.620117, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": 0.029426, "positive_rate": 0.611111, "directional_follow_through": 0.388889, "median_excess_return": 0.024815, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.219036, "worst_return": -0.125772, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.024621, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": 0.052041, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.200382, "worst_return": -0.024683, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.122157, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.124972, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.229937, "worst_return": -0.032577, "sufficient": 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false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.086667, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.014043, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.142465, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.033333, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.019001, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": 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"mixed", "direction": -20.740267, "energy": 20.540431, "activity_lines": [ 8038.112695, 8222.948207, 8144.262958, 8059.628389 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 6470.620117, "volume": 1645, "typical_volume": 595.5, "trend": 8019.543669, "fair_value": 9201.524483, "relative_strength": -26.492883, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.720132, "energy": 61.504141, "activity_lines": [ 7511.686719, 7872.088228, 8003.557113, 7955.548633 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6530.0, "volume": 4033, "typical_volume": 791.05, "trend": 7953.687679, "fair_value": 9194.729611, "relative_strength": -24.451152, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.305528, "energy": 79.882896, "activity_lines": [ 7112.565365, 7574.922585, 7871.47916, 7859.449041 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6530.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 791.05, "trend": 7888.521012, "fair_value": 9187.934739, "relative_strength": -23.810594, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.39128, "energy": 90.44649, "activity_lines": [ 6795.59069, 7319.011488, 7744.444064, 7767.598223 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6945.0, "volume": 285, "typical_volume": 805.3, "trend": 7808.021012, "fair_value": 9183.800124, "relative_strength": -17.834716, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.428409, "energy": 85.619027, "activity_lines": [ 6738.416016, 7187.645845, 7661.975635, 7706.7259 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }