{ "ticker": { "uuid": "eeafadd4-7e48-43ac-ad20-f450edf97ca9", "symbol": "LFEQ", "name": "VANECK ETF TR VANECK LONG/FLAT TREND ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 89.86, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 84.239, "architecture_energy": 61.13, "architecture_maturity": 52.03, "architecture_confidence": 81.082, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.89, "rotation_up": 56.99, "upward_expansion": 82.67, "deceleration": 61.53, "rotation_down": 26.77, "downward_expansion": 9.34 }, "activity_lines": [ 60.002227, 59.632865, 59.050008, 57.886936 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 61.46, "trend_reference": 56.579663, "distance_from_trend": 0.086256, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 48.028284, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.279663, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -0.352198, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.119788, "excess_performance": -0.005837, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.086256, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.03339, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.279663, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.010965, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.003522, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.000919, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.119788, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.619703, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5678, "relative_activity": 0.932019, "balance": 1.619703, "dry_up": 1.166378, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.02011, "annualized_volatility": 0.137888, "from_high_reference": -0.003405, "from_low_reference": 0.224318 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 56.579663, "fair_value_reference": 48.028284, "structural_low": 50.2699, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 39, "median_return": 0.011136, "positive_rate": 0.74359, "directional_follow_through": 0.74359, "median_excess_return": -0.00045, "regime_survival": 0.794872, "best_return": 0.063171, "worst_return": -0.121137, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.045498, "positive_rate": 0.769231, "directional_follow_through": 0.769231, "median_excess_return": -0.000997, "regime_survival": 0.692308, "best_return": 0.104252, "worst_return": -0.04252, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.075151, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.00211, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.154816, "worst_return": -0.140951, "sufficient": true }, { 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"relative_strength": -0.264636, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 73.968254, "energy": 59.017061, "activity_lines": [ 59.368227, 59.244773, 57.979746, 56.957378 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 59.1974, "volume": 13692, "typical_volume": 6038.3, "trend": 56.058549, "fair_value": 47.610373, "relative_strength": -0.176032, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.455758, "energy": 53.083699, "activity_lines": [ 59.358593, 59.255251, 58.235034, 57.171067 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 58.7511, "volume": 4210, "typical_volume": 6077.4, "trend": 56.190603, "fair_value": 47.738288, "relative_strength": -0.336531, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.70412, "energy": 49.928502, "activity_lines": [ 59.180287, 59.173558, 58.42502, 57.34478 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 59.502, "volume": 4843, "typical_volume": 5879.25, "trend": 56.367977, "fair_value": 47.876647, "relative_strength": -0.148846, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.902399, "energy": 49.366683, "activity_lines": [ 59.303553, 59.227545, 58.66088, 57.558418 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 61.46, "volume": 5678, "typical_volume": 6092.15, "trend": 56.579663, "fair_value": 48.028284, "relative_strength": -0.352198, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 84.239275, "energy": 61.129619, "activity_lines": [ 60.002227, 59.632865, 59.050008, 57.886936 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }