{ "ticker": { "uuid": "eeb022e1-055b-401b-b9fa-3ebe43587187", "symbol": "ROBE", "name": "L&G ROBO Global Robotics and Automation UCITS ETF", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 22.359, "architecture_energy": 21.723, "architecture_maturity": 69.172, "architecture_confidence": 87.288, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 48.05, "rotation_up": 25.09, "upward_expansion": 50.12, "deceleration": 82.19, "rotation_down": 41.45, "downward_expansion": 30.46 }, "activity_lines": [ 28.439334, 28.799818, 28.947405, 28.298527 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 29.575001, "trend_reference": 27.456833, "distance_from_trend": 0.077145, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 22.145577, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.335481, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 6.593615, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.171983, "excess_performance": 0.120748, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.077145, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.067805, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.335481, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.037101, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.065936, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.118327, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.171983, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.623476, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 115963, "relative_activity": 1.356126, "balance": 0.623476, "dry_up": 1.64438, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.04869, "annualized_volatility": 0.260039, "from_high_reference": -0.056619, "from_low_reference": 0.371435 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 27.456833, "fair_value_reference": 22.145577, "structural_low": 23.295, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.042031, "positive_rate": 0.777778, "directional_follow_through": 0.777778, "median_excess_return": 0.061894, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.159958, "worst_return": -0.01862, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.012693, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.022557, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.227608, "worst_return": -0.094832, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.023662, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.061255, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.001219, "worst_return": -0.120751, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.058725, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.002972, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.203027, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.177692, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.072612, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-22", 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64536.0, "trend": 26.94375, "fair_value": 21.955272, "relative_strength": 10.817358, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.262284, "energy": 40.12256, "activity_lines": [ 29.7, 29.793818, 28.865024, 28.034876 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 27.469999, "volume": 262506, "typical_volume": 73958.65, "trend": 27.067667, "fair_value": 21.995849, "relative_strength": 2.370629, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 25.904449, "energy": 18.605814, "activity_lines": [ 28.973, 29.364909, 28.830976, 28.068828 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 27.92, "volume": 78262, "typical_volume": 76700.3, "trend": 27.203, "fair_value": 22.037756, "relative_strength": 2.559808, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 24.942388, "energy": 19.813467, "activity_lines": [ 28.501333, 29.053454, 28.83681, 28.123817 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 27.655001, "volume": 105716, "typical_volume": 80559.45, "trend": 27.319, "fair_value": 22.08375, "relative_strength": 0.214275, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 0.541066, "energy": 17.383277, "activity_lines": [ 28.101333, 28.725182, 28.807333, 28.152979 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 29.575001, "volume": 115963, "typical_volume": 85510.5, "trend": 27.456833, "fair_value": 22.145577, "relative_strength": 6.593615, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 22.359006, "energy": 21.722932, "activity_lines": [ 28.439334, 28.799818, 28.947405, 28.298527 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }