{ "ticker": { "uuid": "eeb25427-ef96-45e6-8d9e-7d5b59218890", "symbol": "5520", "name": "Lih Tai Construction Enterprise Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 66.88, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 54.822, "architecture_energy": 36.41, "architecture_maturity": 24.935, "architecture_confidence": 74.827, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 40.38, "rotation_up": 54.65, "upward_expansion": 81.85, "deceleration": 47.69, "rotation_down": 18.93, "downward_expansion": 8.52 }, "activity_lines": [ 82.673333, 82.487273, 82.210477, 82.1436 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 83.0, "trend_reference": 82.041506, "distance_from_trend": 0.011683, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 72.544455, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.144126, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -29.544602, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.025756, "excess_performance": -0.415616, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.011683, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.006101, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.144126, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.030173, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.295446, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.025264, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.025756, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.297718, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 23282, "relative_activity": 1.281311, "balance": 1.297718, "dry_up": 0.719878, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.01696, "annualized_volatility": 0.104107, "from_high_reference": -0.082767, "from_low_reference": 0.098222 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 82.041506, "fair_value_reference": 72.544455, "structural_low": 78.5, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.004556, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.006958, "regime_survival": 0.642857, "best_return": 0.17207, "worst_return": -0.02518, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.004869, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.006742, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.151515, "worst_return": -0.028725, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.009754, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.000696, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.126263, "worst_return": -0.001795, 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82.300003, "volume": 15000, "typical_volume": 32794.25, "trend": 82.062702, "fair_value": 71.71754, "relative_strength": -27.763807, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 18.89686, "energy": 14.029351, "activity_lines": [ 82.280002, 82.212729, 82.008059, 81.999938 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 82.599998, "volume": 8000, "typical_volume": 31744.25, "trend": 82.032922, "fair_value": 71.921541, "relative_strength": -28.486333, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 52.156131, "energy": 32.238434, "activity_lines": [ 82.393334, 82.287274, 82.058538, 82.034602 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 81.199997, "volume": 7040, "typical_volume": 28592.75, "trend": 81.96568, "fair_value": 72.124443, "relative_strength": -28.163529, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 9.590645, "energy": 4.947215, "activity_lines": [ 82.02, 82.096364, 81.972486, 81.980865 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 83.5, "volume": 14000, "typical_volume": 24766.4, "trend": 82.011927, "fair_value": 72.338414, "relative_strength": -27.303157, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.534134, "energy": 35.396864, "activity_lines": [ 82.466666, 82.341818, 82.113334, 82.079853 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 83.0, "volume": 23282, "typical_volume": 18170.45, "trend": 82.041506, "fair_value": 72.544455, "relative_strength": -29.544602, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 54.821697, "energy": 36.409783, "activity_lines": [ 82.673333, 82.487273, 82.210477, 82.1436 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }