{ "ticker": { "uuid": "eeb3df27-ee80-41ec-823b-d59239350ca4", "symbol": "LYKRW", "name": "Amundi MSCI Korea UCITS ETF Acc", "exchange": "EBS", "country": "CH", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SSMI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 95.541, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 1.232, "architecture_energy": 24.47, "architecture_maturity": 66.698, "architecture_confidence": 73.03, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 57.3, "rotation_up": 14.35, "upward_expansion": 42.76, "deceleration": 87.88, "rotation_down": 47.5, "downward_expansion": 36.76 }, "activity_lines": [ 183.177333, 195.245636, 199.227285, 189.804709 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 183.759995, "trend_reference": 175.641332, "distance_from_trend": 0.046223, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 90.586263, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.028564, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 19.113339, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.341314, "excess_performance": 0.258431, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.046223, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.237945, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.028564, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.619269, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.191133, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.707307, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.341314, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.633312, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 27743, "relative_activity": 1.69209, "balance": 0.633312, "dry_up": 2.527248, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.111722, "annualized_volatility": 0.562375, "from_high_reference": -0.237194, "from_low_reference": 1.40272 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 175.641332, "fair_value_reference": 90.586263, "structural_low": 126.599998, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.017128, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.004472, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.277842, "worst_return": -0.063548, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.028555, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.016194, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.56877, "worst_return": -0.052071, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.049985, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.012173, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.055493, "worst_return": -0.056495, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-08-09", "end": "2024-09-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.005614, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-09-20", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.064428, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.022489, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.023123, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.007039, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.00032, "active": false }, 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40.811917, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.386218, "energy": 49.015268, "activity_lines": [ 216.343333, 217.294726, 201.261761, 186.694042 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 181.220001, "volume": 48906, "typical_volume": 12082.85, "trend": 168.535332, "fair_value": 88.388186, "relative_strength": 23.18168, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 29.272888, "energy": 23.125932, "activity_lines": [ 203.29, 211.016908, 200.888999, 187.687676 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 186.860001, "volume": 40522, "typical_volume": 13505.3, "trend": 171.357332, "fair_value": 89.13575, "relative_strength": 25.621442, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 23.139359, "energy": 26.669512, "activity_lines": [ 194.828667, 206.276, 200.987571, 188.869913 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 175.660004, "volume": 48573, "typical_volume": 15566.05, "trend": 173.573333, "fair_value": 89.827994, "relative_strength": 16.71258, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -6.260571, "energy": 23.467313, "activity_lines": [ 186.106668, 199.735455, 199.804333, 189.147505 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 183.759995, "volume": 27743, "typical_volume": 16395.7, "trend": 175.641332, "fair_value": 90.586263, "relative_strength": 19.113339, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 1.231669, "energy": 24.470318, "activity_lines": [ 183.177333, 195.245636, 199.227285, 189.804709 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }