{ "ticker": { "uuid": "eebfbcce-747c-49d2-90d5-f0d92e960602", "symbol": "HLTW", "name": "Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc.", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 6.602, "architecture_energy": 23.754, "architecture_maturity": 61.604, "architecture_confidence": 72.51, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 56.84, "rotation_up": 13.63, "upward_expansion": 52.52, "deceleration": 93.97, "rotation_down": 45.75, "downward_expansion": 23.19 }, "activity_lines": [ 281.07334, 287.260002, 286.838238, 282.028814 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 277.200012, "trend_reference": 275.121256, "distance_from_trend": 0.007556, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 217.183014, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.276343, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.866797, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.051959, "excess_performance": -0.122287, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.007556, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.063345, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.276343, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.059319, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.118668, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.075366, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.051959, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.440252, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 0.440252, "dry_up": 2.170543, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.034588, "annualized_volatility": 0.193852, "from_high_reference": -0.089356, "from_low_reference": 0.272045 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 275.121256, "fair_value_reference": 217.183014, "structural_low": 251.26436, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.059124, "positive_rate": 0.818182, "directional_follow_through": 0.818182, "median_excess_return": 0.013717, "regime_survival": 0.272727, "best_return": 0.144265, "worst_return": -0.026674, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.034849, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.002754, "regime_survival": 0.125, "best_return": 0.239253, "worst_return": -0.189532, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.162149, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.134029, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.333981, "worst_return": -0.029332, "sufficient": true 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"regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.135521, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.185653, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.071073, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.000652, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.049187, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": 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"fair_value": 215.41546, "relative_strength": -6.16462, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.713653, "energy": 27.087588, "activity_lines": [ 289.859998, 292.845451, 287.755, 281.647372 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 276.700012, "volume": 30, "typical_volume": 12.9, "trend": 274.495054, "fair_value": 216.304624, "relative_strength": -9.595945, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 13.731137, "energy": 21.782911, "activity_lines": [ 284.746669, 290.016363, 287.328135, 281.854301 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 277.200012, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 12.9, "trend": 275.121256, "fair_value": 217.183014, "relative_strength": -11.866797, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 6.602447, "energy": 23.753864, "activity_lines": [ 281.07334, 287.260002, 286.838238, 282.028814 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }