{ "ticker": { "uuid": "eec0f59e-7d97-42e1-86f0-d359808091a7", "symbol": "ADD", "name": "AddTech Hub Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 74.355, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 12.09, "architecture_energy": 21.537, "architecture_maturity": 10.255, "architecture_confidence": 51.617, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 52.14, "rotation_up": 47.71, "upward_expansion": 42.62, "deceleration": 31.03, "rotation_down": 17.99, "downward_expansion": 39.62 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.434667, 3.361091, 3.321992, 3.36439 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 3.56, "trend_reference": 3.437307, "distance_from_trend": 0.035695, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 3.777098, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.057477, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -3.950462, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.064088, "excess_performance": -0.256413, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.035695, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.044839, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.057477, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.099531, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.039505, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.042846, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.064088, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 8.452399, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 311400, "relative_activity": 1.050094, "balance": 8.452399, "dry_up": 0.69433, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.052498, "annualized_volatility": 0.285177, "from_high_reference": -0.14208, "from_low_reference": 0.532569 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.437307, "fair_value_reference": 3.777098, "structural_low": 3.046243, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.008403, "positive_rate": 0.384615, "directional_follow_through": 0.384615, "median_excess_return": -0.002924, "regime_survival": 0.538462, "best_return": 0.136364, "worst_return": -0.144654, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.110324, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.006854, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": -0.001743, "worst_return": -0.185654, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.117677, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.011118, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.278456, "worst_return": -0.187074, "sufficient": 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"downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.10824, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.005581, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.222431, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.237805, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.095818, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": 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"Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.000164, "energy": 55.261101, "activity_lines": [ 3.209333, 3.260097, 3.290244, 3.362697 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 3.36, "volume": 802400, "typical_volume": 304950.0, "trend": 3.394983, "fair_value": 3.812565, "relative_strength": -10.76931, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.097372, "energy": 40.801926, "activity_lines": [ 3.248, 3.278409, 3.286793, 3.361593 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 3.38, "volume": 307700, "typical_volume": 301245.0, "trend": 3.405832, "fair_value": 3.803378, "relative_strength": -10.830874, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -32.302664, "energy": 19.525881, "activity_lines": [ 3.293333, 3.294653, 3.288091, 3.360626 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.36, "volume": 143900, "typical_volume": 297250.0, "trend": 3.414093, "fair_value": 3.793553, "relative_strength": -11.347874, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -18.062497, "energy": 13.114619, "activity_lines": [ 3.328, 3.305837, 3.290326, 3.357669 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.38, "volume": 60600, "typical_volume": 294455.0, "trend": 3.421739, "fair_value": 3.784876, "relative_strength": -9.539831, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -9.016064, "energy": 14.167916, "activity_lines": [ 3.36, 3.317455, 3.296487, 3.35547 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.56, "volume": 311400, "typical_volume": 296545.0, "trend": 3.437307, "fair_value": 3.777098, "relative_strength": -3.950462, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 12.090436, "energy": 21.537048, "activity_lines": [ 3.434667, 3.361091, 3.321992, 3.36439 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }