{ "ticker": { "uuid": "eec23c61-eae0-4e29-9867-441b9423f421", "symbol": "5211", "name": "Penpower Technology LTD.", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -40.841, "architecture_energy": 33.208, "architecture_maturity": 17.794, "architecture_confidence": 76.695, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 37.01, "rotation_up": 14.89, "upward_expansion": 12.77, "deceleration": 49.16, "rotation_down": 56.94, "downward_expansion": 71.77 }, "activity_lines": [ 19.563333, 20.087273, 20.031667, 20.523656 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 19.5, "trend_reference": 21.605, "distance_from_trend": -0.097431, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 24.908654, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.21714, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -45.015421, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.210526, "excess_performance": -0.651898, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.097431, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.089996, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.21714, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.005794, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.450154, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.02491, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.210526, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.889237, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 226203, "relative_activity": 0.384302, "balance": 1.889237, "dry_up": 0.387981, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.108679, "annualized_volatility": 0.403428, "from_high_reference": -0.449929, "from_low_reference": 0.133721 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 21.605, "fair_value_reference": 24.908654, "structural_low": 17.200001, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.000273, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.036601, "regime_survival": 0.416667, "best_return": 0.344828, "worst_return": -0.090734, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.150139, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.116594, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.632812, "worst_return": -0.161232, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.117647, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.077475, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.254345, "worst_return": -0.154982, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.099076, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.148795, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.401915, "worst_return": -0.177606, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-09-13", "end": "2024-10-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.030801, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.055238, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.094096, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.12549, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.043478, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.060659, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.088636, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.252654, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.044905, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.038655, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.09854, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.092025, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-08-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.027431, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-11", "close": 22.200001, "volume": 556000, "typical_volume": 5115500.0, "trend": 24.896684, "fair_value": 18.072731, "relative_strength": -7.934245, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply 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"fair_value": 25.056702, "relative_strength": -40.673547, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -12.900338, "energy": 18.386883, "activity_lines": [ 21.456667, 20.458182, 20.554048, 21.408387 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 20.049999, "volume": 353819, "typical_volume": 589204.55, "trend": 22.573333, "fair_value": 25.024305, "relative_strength": -42.322348, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -17.715792, "energy": 20.207047, "activity_lines": [ 21.193333, 20.479091, 20.459048, 21.23086 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 19.299999, "volume": 266183, "typical_volume": 593035.55, "trend": 22.326667, "fair_value": 24.989897, "relative_strength": -45.05054, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -30.364278, "energy": 18.767646, "activity_lines": [ 20.636666, 20.365454, 20.309286, 21.019677 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 18.9, "volume": 117030, "typical_volume": 589455.75, "trend": 22.075, "fair_value": 24.954788, "relative_strength": -44.855438, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.541255, "energy": 27.228021, "activity_lines": [ 19.923333, 20.187272, 20.140952, 20.798602 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 20.15, "volume": 304059, "typical_volume": 594598.85, "trend": 21.836667, "fair_value": 24.931731, "relative_strength": -41.946185, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.925673, "energy": 27.5022, "activity_lines": [ 19.77, 20.212727, 20.110476, 20.674409 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 19.5, "volume": 226203, "typical_volume": 588607.5, "trend": 21.605, "fair_value": 24.908654, "relative_strength": -45.015421, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.841335, "energy": 33.207613, "activity_lines": [ 19.563333, 20.087273, 20.031667, 20.523656 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }