{ "ticker": { "uuid": "eec3695c-2da8-4d67-92e8-63df343b6b49", "symbol": "600315", "name": "Shanghai Jahwa United Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -47.829, "architecture_energy": 33.683, "architecture_maturity": 42.31, "architecture_confidence": 62.415, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.39, "rotation_up": 25.8, "upward_expansion": 15.82, "deceleration": 66.83, "rotation_down": 40.14, "downward_expansion": 65.82 }, "activity_lines": [ 17.486454, 17.417805, 18.012661, 18.750642 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 17.26, "trend_reference": 19.813365, "distance_from_trend": -0.128871, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 20.595281, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.161944, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -20.920625, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.174952, "excess_performance": -0.131748, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.128871, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.090407, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.161944, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.109337, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.209206, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.00856, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.174952, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.585304, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 49519469, "relative_activity": 1.971373, "balance": 0.585304, "dry_up": 1.428995, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.079186, "annualized_volatility": 0.356927, "from_high_reference": -0.418985, "from_low_reference": 0.060697 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 19.813365, "fair_value_reference": 20.595281, "structural_low": 16.272314, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.035507, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.025214, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.183724, "worst_return": -0.134143, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.076524, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.065656, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.54254, "worst_return": -0.174771, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.168473, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.167295, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.58693, "worst_return": -0.235111, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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18.692949, 19.478509 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 17.409203, "volume": 27326548, "typical_volume": 25788462.6, "trend": 20.368365, "fair_value": 20.793397, "relative_strength": -18.024456, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.199665, "energy": 57.249033, "activity_lines": [ 17.25649, 17.555129, 18.489579, 19.27611 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 16.700001, "volume": 29375240, "typical_volume": 25146409.9, "trend": 20.147698, "fair_value": 20.722904, "relative_strength": -21.939948, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.10171, "energy": 53.932761, "activity_lines": [ 17.08976, 17.345294, 18.242479, 19.039441 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 18.4, "volume": 37360019, "typical_volume": 24765106.45, "trend": 19.988698, "fair_value": 20.659557, "relative_strength": -13.90533, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.468599, "energy": 35.637052, "activity_lines": [ 17.54903, 17.487458, 18.175951, 18.926687 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 17.26, "volume": 49519469, "typical_volume": 25119276.15, "trend": 19.813365, "fair_value": 20.595281, "relative_strength": -20.920625, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.828954, "energy": 33.682752, "activity_lines": [ 17.486454, 17.417805, 18.012661, 18.750642 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }