{ "ticker": { "uuid": "eec53730-a501-43f8-9ee0-3930c33d6df4", "symbol": "2460", "name": "GEM Terminal Industry Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-21", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 68.486, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -25.149, "architecture_energy": 35.969, "architecture_maturity": 11.889, "architecture_confidence": 69.117, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 41.43, "rotation_up": 15.24, "upward_expansion": 24.34, "deceleration": 54.67, "rotation_down": 64.27, "downward_expansion": 45.01 }, "activity_lines": [ 29.693333, 31.189091, 32.302143, 31.782796 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 28.799999, "trend_reference": 30.271667, "distance_from_trend": -0.048615, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 26.150321, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.101325, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -13.241566, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.092979, "excess_performance": -0.252753, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.048615, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.168865, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.101325, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.182228, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.132416, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.160076, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.092979, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.568518, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1224451, "relative_activity": 0.178202, "balance": 1.568518, "dry_up": 0.297745, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.138355, "annualized_volatility": 0.57913, "from_high_reference": -0.314286, "from_low_reference": 1.057143 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 30.271667, "fair_value_reference": 26.150321, "structural_low": 22.6, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.007792, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": -0.070381, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.297735, "worst_return": -0.185759, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.104082, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.069836, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.144615, "worst_return": -0.311146, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.171296, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.088014, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.563077, "worst_return": -0.392453, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.150879, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.113598, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.766154, "worst_return": -0.464396, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2022-12-30", "end": "2023-02-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.113846, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-02-17", "end": "2023-05-26", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.122905, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2023-06-02", "end": "2023-06-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.07243, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-06-23", "end": "2023-10-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.056277, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2023-10-13", "end": "2023-10-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.068182, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-11-03", "end": "2024-03-29", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.227758, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-04-05", "end": "2024-07-19", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.161473, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-07-26", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.37457, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.197403, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", 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"energy": 18.961419, "activity_lines": [ 33.283333, 33.690909, 33.351905, 31.765269 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 30.299999, "volume": 2816224, "typical_volume": 6814849.05, "trend": 29.585, "fair_value": 26.037179, "relative_strength": -5.100431, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 5.894974, "energy": 12.352494, "activity_lines": [ 31.92, 33.101818, 33.180238, 31.831613 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 30.25, "volume": 1770429, "typical_volume": 6797440.3, "trend": 29.856667, "fair_value": 26.082692, "relative_strength": -7.516911, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 2.791241, "energy": 16.97118, "activity_lines": [ 30.92, 32.544545, 32.972619, 31.874516 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 29.700001, "volume": 2372280, "typical_volume": 6864890.3, "trend": 30.065, "fair_value": 26.125962, "relative_strength": -11.932542, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": -1.989711, "energy": 18.24149, "activity_lines": [ 30.303333, 31.926364, 32.691667, 31.864409 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-21", "close": 28.799999, "volume": 1224451, "typical_volume": 6871145.6, "trend": 30.271667, "fair_value": 26.150321, "relative_strength": -13.241566, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -25.148902, "energy": 35.969329, "activity_lines": [ 29.693333, 31.189091, 32.302143, 31.782796 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }