{ "ticker": { "uuid": "eed39e54-2a4d-4391-b165-a52d81556300", "symbol": "BSM", "name": "Black Stone Minerals LP", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 62.136, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 11.03, "architecture_energy": 20.766, "architecture_maturity": 16.144, "architecture_confidence": 45.807, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 55.16, "rotation_up": 53.48, "upward_expansion": 40.32, "deceleration": 31.05, "rotation_down": 21.34, "downward_expansion": 19.99 }, "activity_lines": [ 14.230264, 14.070422, 13.95354, 14.038675 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 14.1, "trend_reference": 14.125494, "distance_from_trend": -0.001805, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 13.02313, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.082689, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -6.509493, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.019366, "excess_performance": -0.144991, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.001805, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.017782, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.082689, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.049294, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.065095, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.021939, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.019366, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.871791, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3738189, "relative_activity": 2.008357, "balance": 1.871791, "dry_up": 1.136433, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.044944, "annualized_volatility": 0.185267, "from_high_reference": -0.069203, "from_low_reference": 0.277173 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.125494, "fair_value_reference": 13.02313, "structural_low": 12.928382, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.005732, "positive_rate": 0.5625, "directional_follow_through": 0.5625, "median_excess_return": -0.005997, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.12127, "worst_return": -0.0637, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.02131, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.024464, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.3832, "worst_return": -0.122179, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.081206, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.072618, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.361388, "worst_return": -0.057753, "sufficient": true }, { 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"relative_strength": -0.497125, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -6.302238, "energy": 5.878315, "activity_lines": [ 13.946483, 13.905384, 13.883469, 14.000824 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.620069, "volume": 1489941, "typical_volume": 1797706.1, "trend": 14.094516, "fair_value": 13.014909, "relative_strength": 0.351702, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 24.429489, "energy": 23.849537, "activity_lines": [ 14.192387, 14.042456, 13.942245, 14.038321 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.1, "volume": 3738189, "typical_volume": 1861317.4, "trend": 14.125494, "fair_value": 13.02313, "relative_strength": -6.509493, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 11.029725, "energy": 20.765763, "activity_lines": [ 14.230264, 14.070422, 13.95354, 14.038675 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }