{ "ticker": { "uuid": "eed8f013-9434-4482-8051-df0d8b1dda73", "symbol": "200505", "name": "Hainan Jingliang Holdings Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -33.604, "architecture_energy": 19.998, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 73.036, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 42.34, "rotation_up": 28.76, "upward_expansion": 18.93, "deceleration": 46.88, "rotation_down": 23.32, "downward_expansion": 55.27 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.858, 1.835636, 1.856048, 1.894989 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 1.87, "trend_reference": 1.958333, "distance_from_trend": -0.045106, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.103049, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.110815, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.545531, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.15, "excess_performance": -0.1574, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.045106, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.058041, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.110815, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.00996, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.125455, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.136158, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.15, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.451045, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 444704, "relative_activity": 1.131682, "balance": 0.451045, "dry_up": 1.102495, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.044015, "annualized_volatility": 0.195082, "from_high_reference": -0.197425, "from_low_reference": 0.106509 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.958333, "fair_value_reference": 2.103049, "structural_low": 1.69, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 32, "median_return": -0.012232, "positive_rate": 0.34375, "directional_follow_through": 0.65625, "median_excess_return": 0.001305, "regime_survival": 0.875, "best_return": 0.097902, "worst_return": -0.099174, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.011625, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.018479, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.047847, "worst_return": -0.119149, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.006873, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.08084, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.062802, "worst_return": -0.236163, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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"activity_lines": [ 1.797333, 1.820727, 1.878381, 1.930495 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.79, "volume": 299829, "typical_volume": 485425.85, "trend": 1.995333, "fair_value": 2.11539, "relative_strength": -14.646122, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.883247, "energy": 53.608223, "activity_lines": [ 1.792, 1.810182, 1.865429, 1.916366 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.86, "volume": 658500, "typical_volume": 448792.2, "trend": 1.984667, "fair_value": 2.111354, "relative_strength": -11.072658, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.704674, "energy": 39.034634, "activity_lines": [ 1.814667, 1.815091, 1.86019, 1.907634 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.89, "volume": 329906, "typical_volume": 424992.25, "trend": 1.971333, "fair_value": 2.107387, "relative_strength": -7.649179, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.026325, "energy": 25.918284, "activity_lines": [ 1.844667, 1.826727, 1.858667, 1.901527 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.87, "volume": 444704, "typical_volume": 392958.35, "trend": 1.958333, "fair_value": 2.103049, "relative_strength": -12.545531, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.603709, "energy": 19.99787, "activity_lines": [ 1.858, 1.835636, 1.856048, 1.894989 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }