{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "eeda5d87-6576-4152-ac20-9d0ee8f45476",
    "symbol": "HSPD",
    "name": "HSBC S&P 500 UCITS ETF",
    "exchange": "MIL",
    "country": "IT",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 86.037,
    "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 83.666,
    "architecture_energy": 67.818,
    "architecture_maturity": 92.12,
    "architecture_confidence": 62.445,
    "architecture_tenure": "Established",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 15.71,
        "rotation_up": 53.44,
        "upward_expansion": 83.0,
        "deceleration": 71.47,
        "rotation_down": 29.47,
        "downward_expansion": 12.0
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        66.545999,
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        65.396047,
        63.919071
      ],
      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.5
    },
    "latest_close": 67.709999,
    "trend_reference": 62.174177,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.089037,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 52.880762,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.280428,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": -3.579909,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.151335,
    "excess_performance": -0.019557,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.089037,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.040435,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.280428,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.028589,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.035799,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.012113,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.151335,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 1.272188,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 18772,
      "relative_activity": 2.406728,
      "balance": 1.272188,
      "dry_up": 1.589784,
      "accumulation_observations": 2,
      "distribution_observations": 1
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.016337,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.116962,
      "from_high_reference": -0.008493,
      "from_low_reference": 0.237902
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 62.174177,
      "fair_value_reference": 52.880762,
      "structural_low": 56.099998,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
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        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 38,
        "median_return": 0.014474,
        "positive_rate": 0.631579,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.631579,
        "median_excess_return": -0.007257,
        "regime_survival": 0.815789,
        "best_return": 0.080112,
        "worst_return": -0.102333,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 14,
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        "median_excess_return": -0.00782,
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        "worst_return": -0.177381,
        "sufficient": true
      },
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        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 8,
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        "worst_return": -0.086098,
        "sufficient": true
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        "horizon": "Full cycle",
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        "worst_return": 0.048212,
        "sufficient": false
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        "regime": "deceleration",
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        "regime": "downward_expansion",
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        "regime": "balance",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-24",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
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      },
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
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        "typical_volume": 8925.8,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
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        "relative_strength": -0.25956,
        "stage": 2,
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        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
        "close": 65.110001,
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        "relative_strength": -4.096012,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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        "relative_strength": -2.959977,
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        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 66.652851,
        "energy": 70.046305,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "close": 66.389999,
        "volume": 7,
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        "trend": 60.932721,
        "fair_value": 52.035388,
        "relative_strength": -4.35978,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
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        "fair_value": 52.211864,
        "relative_strength": -3.086849,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
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        "energy": 72.261764,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
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        "volume": 23703,
        "typical_volume": 8444.9,
        "trend": 61.461444,
        "fair_value": 52.379004,
        "relative_strength": -2.708561,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 65.141185,
        "energy": 66.064283,
        "activity_lines": [
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          62.999148
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 66.260002,
        "volume": 2848,
        "typical_volume": 7218.95,
        "trend": 61.703859,
        "fair_value": 52.541282,
        "relative_strength": -2.38369,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 64.942732,
        "energy": 65.655089,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 65.379997,
        "volume": 4277,
        "typical_volume": 6998.1,
        "trend": 61.925899,
        "fair_value": 52.702477,
        "relative_strength": -4.218122,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 61.695995,
        "energy": 60.998499,
        "activity_lines": [
          66.053999,
          66.002545,
          64.977428,
          63.545903
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 67.709999,
        "volume": 18772,
        "typical_volume": 7799.8,
        "trend": 62.174177,
        "fair_value": 52.880762,
        "relative_strength": -3.579909,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 83.665675,
        "energy": 67.817922,
        "activity_lines": [
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}