{ "ticker": { "uuid": "eedb4041-3291-4a6a-a679-1b945dae3e62", "symbol": "DRX", "name": "ADF Group Inc.", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 64.17, "architecture_energy": 60.511, "architecture_maturity": 92.635, "architecture_confidence": 76.121, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.05, "rotation_up": 53.6, "upward_expansion": 80.21, "deceleration": 68.6, "rotation_down": 27.74, "downward_expansion": 15.88 }, "activity_lines": [ 16.434666, 16.388727, 14.440371, 13.160376 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 15.09, "trend_reference": 11.670226, "distance_from_trend": 0.293034, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 9.455113, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.595962, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 33.412112, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.586706, "excess_performance": 0.466285, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.293034, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.27735, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.595962, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.365954, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.334121, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.23805, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.586706, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.193964, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 250000, "relative_activity": 0.992123, "balance": 1.193964, "dry_up": 1.079132, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.104042, "annualized_volatility": 0.770752, "from_high_reference": -0.18167, "from_low_reference": 1.191494 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.670226, "fair_value_reference": 9.455113, "structural_low": 8.532299, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 33, "median_return": 0.02381, "positive_rate": 0.575758, "directional_follow_through": 0.575758, "median_excess_return": 0.013078, "regime_survival": 0.787879, "best_return": 0.680113, "worst_return": -0.19334, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.136208, "positive_rate": 0.636364, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": 0.100889, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.760226, "worst_return": -0.214399, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.135477, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.164328, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 1.541752, "worst_return": -0.219189, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 79.893734, "energy": 92.632391, "activity_lines": [ 17.79, 16.270727, 13.870112, 12.646109 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 15.62, "volume": 290500, "typical_volume": 251225.0, "trend": 11.472926, "fair_value": 9.383766, "relative_strength": 43.539095, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.761045, "energy": 75.986227, "activity_lines": [ 17.232666, 16.426545, 14.196951, 12.927016 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 15.09, "volume": 250000, "typical_volume": 251985.0, "trend": 11.670226, "fair_value": 9.455113, "relative_strength": 33.412112, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.169752, "energy": 60.511227, "activity_lines": [ 16.434666, 16.388727, 14.440371, 13.160376 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }