{ "ticker": { "uuid": "eedecac3-3e3f-4d72-ba58-590c5f87bd66", "symbol": "MLIMP", "name": "Imprimerie Chirat Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 Anonyme", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -90.425, "architecture_energy": 96.235, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 92.887, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 6.67, "rotation_up": 29.84, "upward_expansion": 21.9, "deceleration": 37.03, "rotation_down": 62.35, "downward_expansion": 95.24 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.522667, 3.558545, 3.655143, 3.792516 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 3.46, "trend_reference": 3.981333, "distance_from_trend": -0.130944, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.254474, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.341514, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -25.559495, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.195349, "excess_performance": -0.24866, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.130944, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.087687, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.341514, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.055698, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.255595, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.057607, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.195349, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.0, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 85, "relative_activity": 0.225884, "balance": 0.0, "dry_up": 0.146824, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.014673, "annualized_volatility": 0.179723, "from_high_reference": -0.321569, "from_low_reference": 0.0 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.981333, "fair_value_reference": 5.254474, "structural_low": 3.46, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 40, "median_return": -0.016411, "positive_rate": 0.275, "directional_follow_through": 0.575, "median_excess_return": -0.020301, "regime_survival": 0.825, "best_return": 0.207547, "worst_return": -0.104167, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.052351, "positive_rate": 0.357143, "directional_follow_through": 0.642857, "median_excess_return": -0.07069, "regime_survival": 0.785714, "best_return": 0.252525, "worst_return": -0.233577, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.127389, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.167061, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.132075, "worst_return": -0.331387, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"color": "blue", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2024-09-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.016949, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-09-20", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2024-11-29", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.017544, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2024-12-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", 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"volume": 20, "typical_volume": 638.05, "trend": 4.11, "fair_value": 5.301157, "relative_strength": -21.256008, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.118718, "energy": 87.968753, "activity_lines": [ 3.6, 3.627273, 3.755333, 3.899957 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.58, "volume": 6, "typical_volume": 637.9, "trend": 4.069333, "fair_value": 5.286628, "relative_strength": -21.355165, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.004854, "energy": 88.826686, "activity_lines": [ 3.593333, 3.611636, 3.724095, 3.865763 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.5, "volume": 110, "typical_volume": 373.85, "trend": 4.026, "fair_value": 5.271586, "relative_strength": -23.603048, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -85.24356, "energy": 73.560249, "activity_lines": [ 3.561333, 3.586909, 3.689143, 3.829032 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.46, "volume": 85, "typical_volume": 376.3, "trend": 3.981333, "fair_value": 5.254474, "relative_strength": -25.559495, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -90.425074, "energy": 96.234724, "activity_lines": [ 3.522667, 3.558545, 3.655143, 3.792516 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }