{ "ticker": { "uuid": "eededc77-9029-4cdd-8fc5-5a06d7f98ae0", "symbol": "LCWLD", "name": "BNP PARIBAS EASY - Low Carbon 300 World PAB", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 46.087, "architecture_energy": 33.303, "architecture_maturity": 63.071, "architecture_confidence": 90.51, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.14, "rotation_up": 28.76, "upward_expansion": 63.72, "deceleration": 88.33, "rotation_down": 27.97, "downward_expansion": 25.05 }, "activity_lines": [ 19.7831, 19.955047, 19.573163, 19.110673 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 20.018801, "trend_reference": 18.60683, "distance_from_trend": 0.075885, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 16.601283, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.205859, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 3.027486, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.132471, "excess_performance": 0.07916, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.075885, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.042239, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.205859, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.04382, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.030275, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.019366, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.132471, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.992092, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 804, "relative_activity": 0.36244, "balance": 2.992092, "dry_up": 1.069963, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.022886, "annualized_volatility": 0.14366, "from_high_reference": -0.026342, "from_low_reference": 0.180806 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 18.60683, "fair_value_reference": 16.601283, "structural_low": 16.953501, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.029327, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.007816, "regime_survival": 0.125, "best_return": 0.060469, "worst_return": 0.003333, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.061022, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.076194, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.168597, "worst_return": 0.019629, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.125593, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.107112, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.202244, "worst_return": 0.095429, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.141316, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.11228, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.224208, "worst_return": 0.058424, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.011675, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.079149, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.111855, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.001398, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.016765, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.01266, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.010633, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.013301, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.016406, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.035122, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": 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"activity_lines": [ 20.127707, 19.616274, 18.817548, 18.506352 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 20.5604, "volume": 42, "typical_volume": 2292.1, "trend": 18.292063, "fair_value": 16.373565, "relative_strength": 9.067656, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 84.371324, "energy": 94.455544, "activity_lines": [ 20.338973, 19.876658, 19.028361, 18.658628 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 20.286699, "volume": 3624, "typical_volume": 2469.85, "trend": 18.37936, "fair_value": 16.422103, "relative_strength": 9.534467, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.552236, "energy": 87.926532, "activity_lines": [ 20.37472, 20.035602, 19.199833, 18.787314 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 19.5837, "volume": 1068, "typical_volume": 2479.3, "trend": 18.422797, "fair_value": 16.465631, "relative_strength": 5.566075, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.223869, "energy": 65.987408, "activity_lines": [ 20.127953, 20.018411, 19.29295, 18.865013 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 19.802, "volume": 6757, "typical_volume": 2782.55, "trend": 18.490637, "fair_value": 16.510547, "relative_strength": 6.151174, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 53.610023, "energy": 57.058271, "activity_lines": [ 19.981926, 20.022982, 19.399819, 18.953994 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 19.448099, "volume": 865, "typical_volume": 2613.2, "trend": 18.547733, "fair_value": 16.553715, "relative_strength": 2.586402, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.850616, "energy": 37.602095, "activity_lines": [ 19.75556, 19.939154, 19.463938, 19.015766 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 20.018801, "volume": 804, "typical_volume": 2218.3, "trend": 18.60683, "fair_value": 16.601283, "relative_strength": 3.027486, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.086599, "energy": 33.303071, "activity_lines": [ 19.7831, 19.955047, 19.573163, 19.110673 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }