{ "ticker": { "uuid": "eee90b58-e350-4b96-af45-fff47a3fcf45", "symbol": "GPRO34", "name": "GoPro, Inc.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.537, "architecture_energy": 65.974, "architecture_maturity": 34.0, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.45, "rotation_up": 16.68, "upward_expansion": 14.65, "deceleration": 38.63, "rotation_down": 65.3, "downward_expansion": 90.32 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.588667, 3.725091, 4.41319, 4.561462 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 3.58, "trend_reference": 4.858667, "distance_from_trend": -0.263172, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 8.385641, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.57308, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -51.238971, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.314176, "excess_performance": -0.257128, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.263172, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.246718, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.57308, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.276518, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.51239, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.325024, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.314176, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.472786, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 10910, "relative_activity": 0.585611, "balance": 0.472786, "dry_up": 0.2398, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.212935, "annualized_volatility": 1.135497, "from_high_reference": -0.779012, "from_low_reference": 0.084848 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.858667, "fair_value_reference": 8.385641, "structural_low": 3.3, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 45, "median_return": -0.064972, "positive_rate": 0.288889, "directional_follow_through": 0.711111, "median_excess_return": -0.079395, "regime_survival": 0.866667, "best_return": 0.724051, "worst_return": -0.243986, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.098348, "positive_rate": 0.357143, "directional_follow_through": 0.642857, "median_excess_return": -0.083747, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.361775, "worst_return": -0.568483, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.281711, "positive_rate": 0.125, "directional_follow_through": 0.875, "median_excess_return": -0.315448, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 2.014851, "worst_return": -0.418705, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.409359, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.415109, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.181435, "worst_return": -0.606094, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2023-12-15", "end": "2024-01-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.18251, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-01-26", "end": "2024-02-09", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.191288, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-02-16", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.365792, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.153846, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.349043, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.01626, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.049398, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.456044, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.024631, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "New", 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"close": 3.4, "volume": 2303, "typical_volume": 21007.5, "trend": 5.143667, "fair_value": 8.581923, "relative_strength": -55.437686, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.262837, "energy": 64.530758, "activity_lines": [ 3.626667, 3.931455, 4.620905, 4.744495 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.73, "volume": 483, "typical_volume": 19369.85, "trend": 5.003333, "fair_value": 8.485641, "relative_strength": -51.577843, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.27465, "energy": 59.570571, "activity_lines": [ 3.62, 3.828545, 4.523952, 4.65329 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.58, "volume": 10910, "typical_volume": 18630.1, "trend": 4.858667, "fair_value": 8.385641, "relative_strength": -51.238971, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.536853, "energy": 65.973625, "activity_lines": [ 3.588667, 3.725091, 4.41319, 4.561462 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }