{ "ticker": { "uuid": "eef05b12-8a0c-4410-8d41-a3f2127e82f7", "symbol": "IHF", "name": "ISHARES TRUST US HEALTH CARE PROVIDERS ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 69.342, "architecture_energy": 64.706, "architecture_maturity": 68.858, "architecture_confidence": 76.641, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.53, "rotation_up": 55.88, "upward_expansion": 85.33, "deceleration": 68.17, "rotation_down": 27.78, "downward_expansion": 12.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 56.706667, 56.253703, 53.873121, 51.6437 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 57.07, "trend_reference": 49.364259, "distance_from_trend": 0.1561, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 49.986217, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.141715, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 4.280401, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.270888, "excess_performance": 0.145263, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.1561, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.051831, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.141715, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.13479, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.042804, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.091187, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.270888, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.780094, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3005968, "relative_activity": 1.153654, "balance": 0.780094, "dry_up": 1.079489, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.035789, "annualized_volatility": 0.181901, "from_high_reference": -0.021098, "from_low_reference": 0.39835 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 49.364259, "fair_value_reference": 49.986217, "structural_low": 40.812378, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.007188, "positive_rate": 0.4375, "directional_follow_through": 0.4375, "median_excess_return": -0.018567, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.066427, "worst_return": -0.073475, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.039461, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": -0.061525, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.031422, "worst_return": -0.089176, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.008456, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.112753, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.009717, "worst_return": -0.059395, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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49.836505, "relative_strength": 7.646846, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 81.176411, "energy": 92.157495, "activity_lines": [ 55.982716, 54.227463, 51.166184, 49.590443 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 56.64, "volume": 2412405, "typical_volume": 2315318.7, "trend": 48.556316, "fair_value": 49.869675, "relative_strength": 8.435004, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.563134, "energy": 88.685855, "activity_lines": [ 56.475333, 54.902061, 51.924229, 50.131445 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 56.49, "volume": 2132637, "typical_volume": 2381139.65, "trend": 48.835236, "fair_value": 49.907431, "relative_strength": 8.510142, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.998826, "energy": 84.403873, "activity_lines": [ 56.704, 55.427278, 52.61709, 50.643296 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 56.38, "volume": 3699883, "typical_volume": 2500571.1, "trend": 49.108498, "fair_value": 49.945017, "relative_strength": 6.837745, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.775638, "energy": 65.083996, "activity_lines": [ 56.616, 55.830187, 53.242888, 51.130055 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 57.07, "volume": 3005968, "typical_volume": 2605607.3, "trend": 49.364259, "fair_value": 49.986217, "relative_strength": 4.280401, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.342303, "energy": 64.706262, "activity_lines": [ 56.706667, 56.253703, 53.873121, 51.6437 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }