{ "ticker": { "uuid": "eef56df2-c951-4339-acc6-d7b3f0c168d2", "symbol": "MYY", "name": "PROSHARES TRUST SHORT S&P MID CAP 400 ETF (POST SPLIT)", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -73.034, "architecture_energy": 49.2, "architecture_maturity": 63.163, "architecture_confidence": 87.512, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.31, "rotation_up": 27.94, "upward_expansion": 7.03, "deceleration": 58.17, "rotation_down": 44.46, "downward_expansion": 75.69 }, "activity_lines": [ 15.170307, 15.195563, 15.370411, 15.659175 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 14.875, "trend_reference": 15.978037, "distance_from_trend": -0.069035, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 18.253214, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.185075, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -20.506082, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.074809, "excess_performance": -0.200434, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.069035, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.042402, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.185075, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.016526, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.205061, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.002101, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.074809, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.256549, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 9824, "relative_activity": 0.188358, "balance": 0.256549, "dry_up": 1.132214, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.025508, "annualized_volatility": 0.136193, "from_high_reference": -0.193824, "from_low_reference": 0.000673 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15.978037, "fair_value_reference": 18.253214, "structural_low": 14.865, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 35, "median_return": -0.011144, "positive_rate": 0.457143, "directional_follow_through": 0.542857, "median_excess_return": -0.024264, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.123091, "worst_return": -0.095975, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.005387, "positive_rate": 0.384615, "directional_follow_through": 0.615385, "median_excess_return": -0.038526, "regime_survival": 0.538462, "best_return": 0.189881, "worst_return": -0.091516, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.04876, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.145882, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.187522, "worst_return": -0.116017, "sufficient": 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16.220251, "fair_value": 18.372801, "relative_strength": -18.632573, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.109021, "energy": 63.980323, "activity_lines": [ 15.191352, 15.295933, 15.641412, 15.897023 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 15.31, "volume": 18246, "typical_volume": 51862.7, "trend": 16.158087, "fair_value": 18.344599, "relative_strength": -16.611996, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.285909, "energy": 50.346865, "activity_lines": [ 15.235549, 15.279383, 15.573955, 15.838297 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 15.28, "volume": 169925, "typical_volume": 56202.55, "trend": 16.098476, "fair_value": 18.316499, "relative_strength": -15.806938, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.883827, "energy": 44.462087, "activity_lines": [ 15.259813, 15.261527, 15.507872, 15.781646 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 15.3624, "volume": 38212, "typical_volume": 56272.75, "trend": 16.03722, "fair_value": 18.287036, "relative_strength": -15.663626, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.69229, "energy": 34.89067, "activity_lines": [ 15.304707, 15.270361, 15.457692, 15.734157 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.875, "volume": 9824, "typical_volume": 52156.0, "trend": 15.978037, "fair_value": 18.253214, "relative_strength": -20.506082, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.034484, "energy": 49.199973, "activity_lines": [ 15.170307, 15.195563, 15.370411, 15.659175 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }