{ "ticker": { "uuid": "eef6e02f-99d1-4641-a1ae-6cec607f46e6", "symbol": "SLR", "name": "Solitario Resources Corp.", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -31.27, "architecture_energy": 50.972, "architecture_maturity": 9.982, "architecture_confidence": 59.943, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.65, "rotation_up": 20.13, "upward_expansion": 19.2, "deceleration": 44.56, "rotation_down": 57.73, "downward_expansion": 56.2 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.038, 1.054727, 1.092333, 1.105419 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 1.05, "trend_reference": 1.105, "distance_from_trend": -0.049774, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.951474, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.10355, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.514108, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.039604, "excess_performance": -0.080817, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.049774, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.061819, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.10355, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.129908, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.105141, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.122264, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.039604, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.889063, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 36300, "relative_activity": 0.706294, "balance": 0.889063, "dry_up": 0.81039, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.064469, "annualized_volatility": 0.320875, "from_high_reference": -0.198473, "from_low_reference": 0.346154 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.105, "fair_value_reference": 0.951474, "structural_low": 0.97, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.111111, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.058224, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.144444, "worst_return": -0.1, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.025, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.029242, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.271605, "worst_return": -0.055556, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.166667, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.138912, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.407407, "worst_return": -0.0875, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.069444, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.000844, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.069444, "worst_return": 0.069444, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-08-09", "end": "2024-10-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.09434, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.010417, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.141304, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.163636, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.073684, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.168421, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.084112, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.14433, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.148148, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.073684, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation 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"2026-07-03", "close": 1.09, "volume": 1200, "typical_volume": 82535.0, "trend": 1.083667, "fair_value": 0.942244, "relative_strength": -5.64443, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "up", "direction": 3.89268, "energy": 21.758066, "activity_lines": [ 1.089333, 1.112545, 1.136429, 1.121398 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 1.09, "volume": 76100, "typical_volume": 83850.0, "trend": 1.089667, "fair_value": 0.944551, "relative_strength": -5.644357, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -14.868307, "energy": 28.417572, "activity_lines": [ 1.087333, 1.105818, 1.131714, 1.121806 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.03, "volume": 74800, "typical_volume": 80270.0, "trend": 1.094, "fair_value": 0.946218, "relative_strength": -10.575388, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -28.262055, "energy": 40.725558, "activity_lines": [ 1.066667, 1.088909, 1.121, 1.117957 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.03, "volume": 26900, "typical_volume": 68720.0, "trend": 1.098667, "fair_value": 0.948462, "relative_strength": -10.420655, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -36.114984, "energy": 43.472948, "activity_lines": [ 1.052, 1.074, 1.110476, 1.113828 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.02, "volume": 28600, "typical_volume": 54790.0, "trend": 1.101667, "fair_value": 0.949936, "relative_strength": -10.602216, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -38.678514, "energy": 52.585926, "activity_lines": [ 1.038667, 1.060545, 1.099429, 1.108753 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.05, "volume": 36300, "typical_volume": 51395.0, "trend": 1.105, "fair_value": 0.951474, "relative_strength": -10.514108, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -31.269782, "energy": 50.971861, "activity_lines": [ 1.038, 1.054727, 1.092333, 1.105419 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }