{ "ticker": { "uuid": "eef90b07-a564-41bd-b230-580561ed91a2", "symbol": "WLY", "name": "John Wiley & Sons", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 69.179, "architecture_energy": 56.534, "architecture_maturity": 74.59, "architecture_confidence": 90.009, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.18, "rotation_up": 62.1, "upward_expansion": 84.51, "deceleration": 65.07, "rotation_down": 21.9, "downward_expansion": 8.84 }, "activity_lines": [ 51.423333, 50.406521, 47.273623, 44.480389 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 52.33, "trend_reference": 40.452391, "distance_from_trend": 0.293619, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 38.021943, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.376311, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 22.038658, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.806277, "excess_performance": 0.680653, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.293619, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.158156, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.376311, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.24848, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.220387, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.214489, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.806277, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.714918, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1817643, "relative_activity": 0.795526, "balance": 2.714918, "dry_up": 0.94639, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.081867, "annualized_volatility": 0.340294, "from_high_reference": -0.089119, "from_low_reference": 0.861013 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 40.452391, "fair_value_reference": 38.021943, "structural_low": 28.13891, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.028097, "positive_rate": 0.692308, "directional_follow_through": 0.692308, "median_excess_return": 0.012042, "regime_survival": 0.846154, "best_return": 0.173886, "worst_return": -0.108691, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.140034, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.089346, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.275348, "worst_return": -0.061376, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.12461, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.076653, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.280597, "worst_return": -0.031378, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"activity_lines": [ 50.360242, 48.011663, 44.916248, 42.092499 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 49.55, "volume": 2254034, "typical_volume": 2394208.5, "trend": 38.979065, "fair_value": 37.762638, "relative_strength": 21.66631, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.664867, "energy": 63.940433, "activity_lines": [ 50.348416, 48.657706, 45.594256, 42.815475 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 52.2, "volume": 2330888, "typical_volume": 2352241.45, "trend": 39.744772, "fair_value": 37.896195, "relative_strength": 26.361637, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.733413, "energy": 59.895315, "activity_lines": [ 51.008782, 49.609932, 46.465433, 43.668438 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 52.33, "volume": 1817643, "typical_volume": 2284833.05, "trend": 40.452391, "fair_value": 38.021943, "relative_strength": 22.038658, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.179256, "energy": 56.533507, "activity_lines": [ 51.423333, 50.406521, 47.273623, 44.480389 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }