{ "ticker": { "uuid": "eef92cf8-97f4-418f-93cb-015315a21d10", "symbol": "600757", "name": "Changjiang Publishing & Media Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -31.435, "architecture_energy": 24.33, "architecture_maturity": 88.603, "architecture_confidence": 77.985, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.32, "rotation_up": 35.13, "upward_expansion": 21.84, "deceleration": 44.16, "rotation_down": 25.07, "downward_expansion": 58.17 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.821333, 7.686709, 7.76262, 8.004361 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 7.75, "trend_reference": 8.333692, "distance_from_trend": -0.07004, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 8.143108, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.048275, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.148325, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.157609, "excess_performance": -0.114405, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.07004, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.048377, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.048275, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.043783, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.091483, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.082602, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.157609, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.805663, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 50341326, "relative_activity": 1.385572, "balance": 0.805663, "dry_up": 1.483913, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.049618, "annualized_volatility": 0.240329, "from_high_reference": -0.208376, "from_low_reference": 0.068966 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.333692, "fair_value_reference": 8.143108, "structural_low": 7.25, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.026437, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": 0.01195, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.154362, "worst_return": -0.08231, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.003907, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.003491, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.049312, "worst_return": -0.052679, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.035394, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.070301, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.007885, "worst_return": -0.062904, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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8.056945 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.2, "volume": 52425851, "typical_volume": 35558785.7, "trend": 8.371359, "fair_value": 8.143412, "relative_strength": -1.776879, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -27.107368, "energy": 20.68772, "activity_lines": [ 7.789333, 7.663417, 7.78891, 8.044449 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.75, "volume": 50341326, "typical_volume": 36332525.85, "trend": 8.333692, "fair_value": 8.143108, "relative_strength": -9.148325, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -31.434557, "energy": 24.330223, "activity_lines": [ 7.821333, 7.686709, 7.76262, 8.004361 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }