{ "ticker": { "uuid": "eefa5d2c-799b-4162-8e99-ebd908db67b7", "symbol": "8011", "name": "Tai Tung Communication Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -66.608, "architecture_energy": 65.229, "architecture_maturity": 60.398, "architecture_confidence": 90.007, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 1.21, "rotation_up": 16.71, "upward_expansion": 13.47, "deceleration": 40.21, "rotation_down": 69.19, "downward_expansion": 91.47 }, "activity_lines": [ 16.263333, 16.632797, 17.181167, 17.752007 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 16.15, "trend_reference": 18.562726, "distance_from_trend": -0.129977, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 20.499781, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.212187, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -43.01561, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.164741, "excess_performance": -0.606113, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.129977, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.06831, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.212187, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.053393, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.430156, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.009016, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.164741, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.076539, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2887470, "relative_activity": 0.460784, "balance": 1.076539, "dry_up": 0.574169, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.06924, "annualized_volatility": 0.241376, "from_high_reference": -0.339028, "from_low_reference": 0.055556 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 18.562726, "fair_value_reference": 20.499781, "structural_low": 15.3, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": 0.006329, "positive_rate": 0.52, "directional_follow_through": 0.48, "median_excess_return": -0.004938, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.109589, "worst_return": -0.171247, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.065068, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": 0.020006, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.147239, "worst_return": -0.148585, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.021786, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.000477, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.120879, "worst_return": -0.136076, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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}, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 16.450001, "volume": 3756328, "typical_volume": 6731043.6, "trend": 18.887119, "fair_value": 20.486915, "relative_strength": -40.109186, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.770229, "energy": 64.656931, "activity_lines": [ 16.586667, 16.98794, 17.524366, 18.084428 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 16.299999, "volume": 3240136, "typical_volume": 6530565.25, "trend": 18.715398, "fair_value": 20.493971, "relative_strength": -41.305194, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.848069, "energy": 67.349737, "activity_lines": [ 16.393333, 16.814338, 17.351766, 17.917517 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 16.15, "volume": 2887470, "typical_volume": 6266422.35, "trend": 18.562726, "fair_value": 20.499781, "relative_strength": -43.01561, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.60848, "energy": 65.229142, "activity_lines": [ 16.263333, 16.632797, 17.181167, 17.752007 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }