{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ef009dca-0392-43de-a9ed-66fc2c64dcfb", "symbol": "600865", "name": "Baida Group Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.632, "architecture_energy": 57.728, "architecture_maturity": 85.031, "architecture_confidence": 93.25, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 9.44, "rotation_up": 27.59, "upward_expansion": 10.07, "deceleration": 60.93, "rotation_down": 53.29, "downward_expansion": 83.4 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.412, 8.487273, 9.273905, 9.960602 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 8.76, "trend_reference": 11.102333, "distance_from_trend": -0.210977, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 8.998202, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.026472, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -19.51739, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.368421, "excess_performance": -0.325217, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.210977, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.098983, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.026472, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.339146, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.195174, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.182687, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.368421, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.589385, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 32112220, "relative_activity": 1.007166, "balance": 0.589385, "dry_up": 1.417998, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.095803, "annualized_volatility": 0.360288, "from_high_reference": -0.620779, "from_low_reference": 0.151117 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.102333, "fair_value_reference": 8.998202, "structural_low": 7.61, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": 0.009608, "positive_rate": 0.55, "directional_follow_through": 0.45, "median_excess_return": 0.012459, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.128988, "worst_return": -0.210909, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.021352, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.012687, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.072589, "worst_return": -0.093062, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.004651, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.038908, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.263079, "worst_return": -0.164518, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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8.926364, 9.814286, 10.619527 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.68, "volume": 38761000, "typical_volume": 29816814.0, "trend": 11.781, "fair_value": 8.999252, "relative_strength": -27.432747, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -82.095202, "energy": 71.843877, "activity_lines": [ 8.139333, 8.607273, 9.549762, 10.332731 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.61, "volume": 67305800, "typical_volume": 31725662.25, "trend": 11.357, "fair_value": 8.999162, "relative_strength": -18.852551, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.505937, "energy": 64.539562, "activity_lines": [ 8.262, 8.517455, 9.396714, 10.128151 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.76, "volume": 32112220, "typical_volume": 31883728.25, "trend": 11.102333, "fair_value": 8.998202, "relative_strength": -19.51739, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.631639, "energy": 57.727916, "activity_lines": [ 8.412, 8.487273, 9.273905, 9.960602 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }