{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ef01bf64-c3bd-4202-99a7-654b3da715f2", "symbol": "BWLPG", "name": "BW LPG Limited", "exchange": "OSL", "country": "NO", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "OSEBX.OL", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 62.023, "architecture_energy": 69.434, "architecture_maturity": 16.974, "architecture_confidence": 88.456, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.02, "rotation_up": 70.01, "upward_expansion": 88.62, "deceleration": 45.92, "rotation_down": 11.19, "downward_expansion": 15.28 }, "activity_lines": [ 206.293335, 199.063092, 193.604611, 186.435481 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 205.0, "trend_reference": 176.392491, "distance_from_trend": 0.162181, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 145.783676, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.406193, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 15.613369, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.297554, "excess_performance": 0.17256, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.162181, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.146828, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.406193, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.050128, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.156134, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.003178, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.297554, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.598601, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1758823, "relative_activity": 1.27654, "balance": 2.598601, "dry_up": 1.194305, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.073543, "annualized_volatility": 0.524277, "from_high_reference": -0.057038, "from_low_reference": 0.75267 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 176.392491, "fair_value_reference": 145.783676, "structural_low": 127.599998, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": -0.007081, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.025243, "regime_survival": 0.653846, "best_return": 0.307067, "worst_return": -0.203632, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.10676, "positive_rate": 0.636364, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": 0.089527, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 0.362991, "worst_return": -0.236566, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.134662, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.069341, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.496444, "worst_return": -0.370338, "sufficient": true }, { 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"direction": 76.448505, "energy": 52.360333, "activity_lines": [ 197.280001, 192.915957, 188.541606, 181.686062 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 213.800003, "volume": 1274643, "typical_volume": 1504986.15, "trend": 174.035197, "fair_value": 145.190315, "relative_strength": 21.254115, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 76.693448, "energy": 74.201902, "activity_lines": [ 204.513335, 196.886413, 191.688585, 184.437752 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 205.0, "volume": 1758823, "typical_volume": 1377805.05, "trend": 176.392491, "fair_value": 145.783676, "relative_strength": 15.613369, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.022952, "energy": 69.43357, "activity_lines": [ 206.293335, 199.063092, 193.604611, 186.435481 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }