{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ef068cee-eea4-49d3-930c-ff530792882c", "symbol": "LEN", "name": "Lennar Corporation", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -55.886, "architecture_energy": 37.845, "architecture_maturity": 63.811, "architecture_confidence": 91.771, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.27, "rotation_up": 18.5, "upward_expansion": 4.03, "deceleration": 49.12, "rotation_down": 57.5, "downward_expansion": 79.7 }, "activity_lines": [ 85.084667, 86.187916, 87.340781, 89.737922 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 88.18, "trend_reference": 94.92354, "distance_from_trend": -0.071042, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 124.663885, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.292658, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -26.985483, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.222533, "excess_performance": -0.348158, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.071042, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.093174, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.292658, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.009918, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.269855, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.032381, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.222533, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.77587, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 10716802, "relative_activity": 0.805022, "balance": 0.77587, "dry_up": 0.916547, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.071343, "annualized_volatility": 0.341537, "from_high_reference": -0.380136, "from_low_reference": 0.104666 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 94.92354, "fair_value_reference": 124.663885, "structural_low": 79.825, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": 0.019257, "positive_rate": 0.52381, "directional_follow_through": 0.47619, "median_excess_return": -0.002342, "regime_survival": 0.809524, "best_return": 0.144986, "worst_return": -0.22248, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.100053, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.078589, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.155575, "worst_return": -0.157734, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.142949, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.177507, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": -0.029168, "worst_return": -0.235898, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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87.688233, 88.419498, 91.971925 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 84.64, "volume": 13638922, "typical_volume": 14082398.25, "trend": 96.616978, "fair_value": 125.049859, "relative_strength": -27.998281, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.55158, "energy": 51.286364, "activity_lines": [ 85.327854, 87.101279, 87.950236, 91.157804 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 82.35, "volume": 13349806, "typical_volume": 13728285.55, "trend": 95.921197, "fair_value": 124.831231, "relative_strength": -30.06524, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.506867, "energy": 60.204887, "activity_lines": [ 83.880647, 86.055416, 87.339057, 90.237354 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 88.18, "volume": 10716802, "typical_volume": 13312434.65, "trend": 94.92354, "fair_value": 124.663885, "relative_strength": -26.985483, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.885602, "energy": 37.845163, "activity_lines": [ 85.084667, 86.187916, 87.340781, 89.737922 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }