{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ef08faf0-aabd-4c39-83be-10e57a4564a4", "symbol": "00662", "name": "Fubon NASDAQ-100 Index ETF", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 58.149, "architecture_energy": 40.569, "architecture_maturity": 66.973, "architecture_confidence": 72.957, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.86, "rotation_up": 40.18, "upward_expansion": 63.67, "deceleration": 85.47, "rotation_down": 27.72, "downward_expansion": 22.67 }, "activity_lines": [ 119.780002, 120.007275, 118.67762, 115.109679 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 121.800003, "trend_reference": 110.761668, "distance_from_trend": 0.099658, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 86.653205, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.405603, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -14.623064, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.175676, "excess_performance": -0.203636, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.099658, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.059278, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.405603, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.015586, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.146231, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.055534, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.175676, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.546931, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 22289059, "relative_activity": 1.174885, "balance": 1.546931, "dry_up": 1.077645, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.028578, "annualized_volatility": 0.164564, "from_high_reference": -0.017742, "from_low_reference": 0.392 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 110.761668, "fair_value_reference": 86.653205, "structural_low": 94.300003, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.003663, "positive_rate": 0.538462, "directional_follow_through": 0.538462, "median_excess_return": -0.017741, "regime_survival": 0.384615, "best_return": 0.069069, "worst_return": -0.101375, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.013407, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.009025, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.171569, "worst_return": -0.062331, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.123694, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.016366, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.160095, "worst_return": -0.05032, "sufficient": 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0.013965, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.045616, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.026875, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.047904, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.055145, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.065451, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": 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113.781076 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 118.550003, "volume": 22576203, "typical_volume": 18590496.95, "trend": 110.125001, "fair_value": 86.274039, "relative_strength": -15.301875, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.856952, "energy": 36.755811, "activity_lines": [ 119.056669, 119.739093, 117.938335, 114.356453 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 121.800003, "volume": 22289059, "typical_volume": 18971262.15, "trend": 110.761668, "fair_value": 86.653205, "relative_strength": -14.623064, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.148597, "energy": 40.569095, "activity_lines": [ 119.780002, 120.007275, 118.67762, 115.109679 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }