{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ef09bb13-73c3-4e7b-b437-87aa4aa894d3", "symbol": "ALNXT", "name": "Nextedia S.A.", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -74.97, "architecture_energy": 85.656, "architecture_maturity": 67.4, "architecture_confidence": 83.603, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 4.0, "rotation_up": 9.06, "upward_expansion": 20.19, "deceleration": 37.09, "rotation_down": 82.95, "downward_expansion": 98.19 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.312867, 0.326218, 0.34179, 0.352665 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 0.307, "trend_reference": 0.368767, "distance_from_trend": -0.167495, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.492837, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.377075, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -28.602416, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.200521, "excess_performance": -0.253832, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.167495, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.067358, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.377075, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.077201, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.286024, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.077833, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.200521, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.471054, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 204715, "relative_activity": 1.603023, "balance": 0.471054, "dry_up": 1.260818, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.067652, "annualized_volatility": 0.325309, "from_high_reference": -0.41635, "from_low_reference": 0.030201 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.368767, "fair_value_reference": 0.492837, "structural_low": 0.298, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 41, "median_return": -0.033816, "positive_rate": 0.414634, "directional_follow_through": 0.585366, "median_excess_return": -0.039055, "regime_survival": 0.780488, "best_return": 0.221505, "worst_return": -0.203455, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.029139, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.08593, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.163399, "worst_return": -0.220994, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.130779, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.131759, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.079208, "worst_return": -0.228421, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-08-02", "end": "2024-08-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.007117, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2024-10-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.151568, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.059426, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.148387, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.170984, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": 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"fair_value": 0.49858, "relative_strength": -25.966201, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.939918, "energy": 80.367001, "activity_lines": [ 0.3332, 0.347255, 0.354962, 0.364966 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.321, "volume": 100057, "typical_volume": 115268.2, "trend": 0.376333, "fair_value": 0.496702, "relative_strength": -23.803437, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.588912, "energy": 80.017388, "activity_lines": [ 0.326, 0.340945, 0.350914, 0.361183 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.31, "volume": 231227, "typical_volume": 120595.75, "trend": 0.3727, "fair_value": 0.49474, "relative_strength": -26.902259, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.93723, "energy": 85.092016, "activity_lines": [ 0.3184, 0.333273, 0.346286, 0.356903 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.307, "volume": 204715, "typical_volume": 127705.6, "trend": 0.368767, "fair_value": 0.492837, "relative_strength": -28.602416, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.969996, "energy": 85.65618, "activity_lines": [ 0.312867, 0.326218, 0.34179, 0.352665 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }