{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ef10ef17-5246-4ffc-bb25-dda1648dfd67", "symbol": "SREI", "name": "Schroder Real Estate Investment Trust Limited", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -55.488, "architecture_energy": 34.871, "architecture_maturity": 38.59, "architecture_confidence": 90.331, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.32, "rotation_up": 20.39, "upward_expansion": 3.73, "deceleration": 50.38, "rotation_down": 53.65, "downward_expansion": 79.39 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.453233, 0.456246, 0.462073, 0.470126 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.4525, "trend_reference": 0.485653, "distance_from_trend": -0.068264, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.439143, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.030417, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -14.939647, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.160473, "excess_performance": -0.211708, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.068264, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.040567, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.030417, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.058741, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.149396, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.033888, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.160473, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.479432, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 27821915, "relative_activity": 4.630025, "balance": 1.479432, "dry_up": 2.002435, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.054617, "annualized_volatility": 0.208296, "from_high_reference": -0.205821, "from_low_reference": 0.071006 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.485653, "fair_value_reference": 0.439143, "structural_low": 0.4225, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.005405, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.027122, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.08296, "worst_return": -0.103017, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.040329, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.055991, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.012593, "worst_return": -0.089197, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.009244, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.028862, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.065673, "worst_return": -0.084161, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"blue", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.050216, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.145131, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.119658, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.045226, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.052797, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.10101, "active": false }, { 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"2026-07-17", "close": 0.456, "volume": 5895094, "typical_volume": 4827564.7, "trend": 0.493208, "fair_value": 0.437287, "relative_strength": -13.094154, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.268185, "energy": 38.207969, "activity_lines": [ 0.458433, 0.461388, 0.466925, 0.477517 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.46, "volume": 6468807, "typical_volume": 4948336.4, "trend": 0.491218, "fair_value": 0.437915, "relative_strength": -13.030617, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.663202, "energy": 32.807, "activity_lines": [ 0.458767, 0.460816, 0.465754, 0.475375 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.446, "volume": 7944865, "typical_volume": 4924105.8, "trend": 0.488632, "fair_value": 0.438492, "relative_strength": -16.295431, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.338203, "energy": 38.142578, "activity_lines": [ 0.454367, 0.4577, 0.463484, 0.472457 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.4525, "volume": 27821915, "typical_volume": 6009020.3, "trend": 0.485653, "fair_value": 0.439143, "relative_strength": -14.939647, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.487692, "energy": 34.87074, "activity_lines": [ 0.453233, 0.456246, 0.462073, 0.470126 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }