{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ef1a5527-4ccd-4f11-86bf-68e17c342932", "symbol": "2646", "name": "STARLUX Airlines Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 85.15, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -39.09, "architecture_energy": 16.209, "architecture_maturity": 24.052, "architecture_confidence": 63.859, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 53.85, "rotation_up": 19.27, "upward_expansion": 18.38, "deceleration": 59.3, "rotation_down": 36.07, "downward_expansion": 52.38 }, "activity_lines": [ 21.043333, 21.123636, 20.945, 21.03129 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 20.4, "trend_reference": 21.378333, "distance_from_trend": -0.045763, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 24.409011, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.164243, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -36.991771, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.107221, "excess_performance": -0.548593, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.045763, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.035636, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.164243, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.041618, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.369918, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.072643, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.107221, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.557584, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 32644125, "relative_activity": 1.221587, "balance": 1.557584, "dry_up": 1.108664, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.045437, "annualized_volatility": 0.130123, "from_high_reference": -0.237383, "from_low_reference": 0.035533 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 21.378333, "fair_value_reference": 24.409011, "structural_low": 19.700001, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.005792, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": -0.02736, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.294785, "worst_return": -0.081272, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.016988, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.033171, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.256071, "worst_return": -0.116608, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.073874, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.005895, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.295806, "worst_return": -0.092664, "sufficient": 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21.018182, 20.855715, 21.151398 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 21.15, "volume": 32522797, "typical_volume": 25303019.0, "trend": 21.63, "fair_value": 24.602931, "relative_strength": -34.766777, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -11.550403, "energy": 11.885244, "activity_lines": [ 21.186667, 21.078182, 20.877619, 21.115592 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 21.65, "volume": 32957155, "typical_volume": 25778518.35, "trend": 21.55, "fair_value": 24.538832, "relative_strength": -31.302015, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 0.676454, "energy": 9.340558, "activity_lines": [ 21.336667, 21.21, 20.951191, 21.116882 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 21.299999, "volume": 20381913, "typical_volume": 25864859.3, "trend": 21.476667, "fair_value": 24.475265, "relative_strength": -33.015257, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -7.988146, "energy": 11.122346, "activity_lines": [ 21.34, 21.256364, 20.990714, 21.100753 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 20.4, "volume": 32644125, "typical_volume": 26722707.5, "trend": 21.378333, "fair_value": 24.409011, "relative_strength": -36.991771, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.090029, "energy": 16.208968, "activity_lines": [ 21.043333, 21.123636, 20.945, 21.03129 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }