{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ef1b46d5-fc45-438f-8090-f69790c618e8", "symbol": "HEGD", "name": "SWAN HEDGED EQUITY US LARGE CAP ETF", "exchange": "CBOE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 50.38, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 76.81, "architecture_energy": 47.931, "architecture_maturity": 45.096, "architecture_confidence": 73.856, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 34.29, "rotation_up": 53.56, "upward_expansion": 79.26, "deceleration": 60.04, "rotation_down": 24.48, "downward_expansion": 5.92 }, "activity_lines": [ 26.829533, 26.725382, 26.58961, 26.292198 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 27.3086, "trend_reference": 25.952373, "distance_from_trend": 0.052258, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 22.530529, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.212071, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -4.542325, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.071115, "excess_performance": -0.05451, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.052258, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.018286, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.212071, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.005318, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.045423, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.004129, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.071115, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.684291, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 353528, "relative_activity": 0.710433, "balance": 1.684291, "dry_up": 0.74796, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.018115, "annualized_volatility": 0.082994, "from_high_reference": -0.004789, "from_low_reference": 0.14957 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 25.952373, "fair_value_reference": 22.530529, "structural_low": 24.39, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 33, "median_return": 0.006893, "positive_rate": 0.636364, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": -0.004061, "regime_survival": 0.757576, "best_return": 0.032938, "worst_return": -0.040563, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.036708, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.018715, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.054816, "worst_return": -0.040291, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.051663, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.034232, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.096781, "worst_return": 0.000771, "sufficient": true }, { 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"relative_strength": -3.557749, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.536633, "energy": 38.627722, "activity_lines": [ 26.651333, 26.641091, 26.386988, 26.111198 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 26.45, "volume": 273777, "typical_volume": 519335.85, "trend": 25.851087, "fair_value": 22.420885, "relative_strength": -3.506762, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.341023, "energy": 34.016038, "activity_lines": [ 26.592667, 26.605636, 26.428843, 26.151956 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 26.61, "volume": 507415, "typical_volume": 505853.9, "trend": 25.893753, "fair_value": 22.473457, "relative_strength": -3.848211, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 53.121449, "energy": 34.864148, "activity_lines": [ 26.605333, 26.601273, 26.479936, 26.200918 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 27.3086, "volume": 353528, "typical_volume": 497623.0, "trend": 25.952373, "fair_value": 22.530529, "relative_strength": -4.542325, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 76.81044, "energy": 47.931243, "activity_lines": [ 26.829533, 26.725382, 26.58961, 26.292198 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }