{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ef1cef39-fb35-4884-80d2-5625d621e23d", "symbol": "XAXD", "name": "Xtrackers MSCI AC Asia ex Japan ESG Swap UCITS ETF 1C", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 74.069, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -49.089, "architecture_energy": 35.662, "architecture_maturity": 6.591, "architecture_confidence": 88.788, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.16, "rotation_up": 17.89, "upward_expansion": 7.39, "deceleration": 42.2, "rotation_down": 51.9, "downward_expansion": 76.06 }, "activity_lines": [ 59.029667, 59.186727, 59.801, 59.942753 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 59.98, "trend_reference": 60.426167, "distance_from_trend": -0.007384, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 48.174957, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.245045, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -8.716495, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.043991, "excess_performance": -0.095226, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.007384, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.008649, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.245045, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.127768, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.087165, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.09261, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.043991, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.481911, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 243438, "relative_activity": 1.089083, "balance": 1.481911, "dry_up": 1.238208, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.033941, "annualized_volatility": 0.189794, "from_high_reference": -0.075382, "from_low_reference": 0.077614 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 60.426167, "fair_value_reference": 48.174957, "structural_low": 55.66, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 32, "median_return": -0.005542, "positive_rate": 0.34375, "directional_follow_through": 0.65625, "median_excess_return": -0.005874, "regime_survival": 0.875, "best_return": 0.106217, "worst_return": -0.130573, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.024277, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.034026, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.105613, "worst_return": -0.18814, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.082035, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.102361, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.3793, "worst_return": -0.148755, 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"down", "direction": -61.491253, "energy": 58.00781, "activity_lines": [ 58.596666, 59.235182, 59.870881, 60.083796 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 58.895, "volume": 278140, "typical_volume": 227846.85, "trend": 60.4835, "fair_value": 48.010822, "relative_strength": -10.309013, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.758101, "energy": 47.962291, "activity_lines": [ 58.634666, 59.097364, 59.784643, 59.975237 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 59.98, "volume": 243438, "typical_volume": 223525.65, "trend": 60.426167, "fair_value": 48.174957, "relative_strength": -8.716495, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.088639, "energy": 35.662022, "activity_lines": [ 59.029667, 59.186727, 59.801, 59.942753 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }