{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ef40f8bf-c719-43b3-a5ea-2ea318cacb36", "symbol": "MXT", "name": "Metrics Master Income Trust", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 22.293, "architecture_energy": 29.935, "architecture_maturity": 14.118, "architecture_confidence": 54.771, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 60.28, "rotation_up": 51.55, "upward_expansion": 52.48, "deceleration": 28.04, "rotation_down": 21.24, "downward_expansion": 13.15 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.92124, 1.915474, 1.913048, 1.910978 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 1.915, "trend_reference": 1.912179, "distance_from_trend": 0.001475, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1.814032, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.055659, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -4.052586, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.015807, "excess_performance": -0.079513, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.001475, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.006886, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.055659, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.015928, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.040526, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.05046, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.015807, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.929049, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8723739, "relative_activity": 1.412491, "balance": 0.929049, "dry_up": 1.424105, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.015446, "annualized_volatility": 0.076524, "from_high_reference": -0.025551, "from_low_reference": 0.072308 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.912179, "fair_value_reference": 1.814032, "structural_low": 1.829988, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": 0.007406, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.008023, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.03562, "worst_return": -0.051336, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.006646, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.006168, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.034179, "worst_return": -0.011812, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.021284, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.016065, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.054671, "worst_return": -0.01613, "sufficient": false }, { 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28.47463, "activity_lines": [ 1.898244, 1.902313, 1.90477, 1.907157 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 1.925563, "volume": 6388059, "typical_volume": 6145924.45, "trend": 1.909407, "fair_value": 1.805138, "relative_strength": 1.320742, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -16.95736, "energy": 9.561598, "activity_lines": [ 1.906755, 1.905543, 1.906753, 1.908337 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.925563, "volume": 8571761, "typical_volume": 6166036.75, "trend": 1.91121, "fair_value": 1.807528, "relative_strength": 1.425915, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 11.939859, "energy": 11.09794, "activity_lines": [ 1.914697, 1.909216, 1.908808, 1.909379 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.915637, "volume": 9442020, "typical_volume": 6272548.35, "trend": 1.912203, "fair_value": 1.809729, "relative_strength": 1.207067, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 17.750226, "energy": 18.628033, "activity_lines": [ 1.917768, 1.910806, 1.909999, 1.909664 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.93, "volume": 8444349, "typical_volume": 6200063.55, "trend": 1.912441, "fair_value": 1.811916, "relative_strength": -0.309725, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 27.384941, "energy": 30.732284, "activity_lines": [ 1.923733, 1.914638, 1.912406, 1.910813 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.915, "volume": 8723739, "typical_volume": 6176137.85, "trend": 1.912179, "fair_value": 1.814032, "relative_strength": -4.052586, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 22.293029, "energy": 29.934587, "activity_lines": [ 1.92124, 1.915474, 1.913048, 1.910978 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }